2019 Q1 Real GDP Increased 3.1%
In 2019 Q1 real GDP increased 3.1 percent. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
The CFNAI Ticked up in June
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to -0.02 in June from -0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, two of the four made negative contributions. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) ticked up to -0.26 in June from -0.27 in May
What is the National Activity Index?
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:
1) production and income;
2) employment, unemployment, and hours;
3) personal consumption and housing; and
4) sales, orders, and inventories.
Why are there three index values?
Each month, we provide a monthly index (the CFNAI), its three-month moving average, and a diffusion index. Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so the monthly index’s three-month moving average, the CFNAI-MA3, provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth. The CFNAI Diffusion Index instead captures the degree to which a change in the monthly index is spread out among its 85 indicators, averaged over a three-month period.
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
The US LEI Fell in June
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined 0.3 percent in June to 111.5 following no change in May and a 0.1 percent increase in April.
The US LEI fell in June, the first decline since last December, driven primarily by weakness in new orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance claims,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board. “For the first time since late 2007, the yield spread made a small negative contribution. As the US economy enters its eleventh year of expansion, the longest in US history, the LEI suggests growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the year.
Business Activity Rebounded in the Empire State
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Empire State Manufacturing Survey and reports business activity rebounded according to survey respondents. The headline general business conditions index climbed out of negative territory, rising thirteen points. New orders were little changed, and shipments increased. Unfilled orders and inventories continued to move lower.
Manufacturing Survey Reports Weakened Activity in July
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Manufacturing Survey and reports activity weakened in the July survey, to its lowest reading since January 2013, as all three components; shipments, new orders and employment all registered declines
Existing Home Sales Dipped in June
Existing home sales dipped 1.7% during June to a 5.27-million-unit pace. Despite the drop, sales remain fairly solid and lower mortgage rates will likely keep resales on an upward trend for the balance of the year. Wells Fargo
US Drill Rigs Running Down
There were 954 drill rigs running in the USA, down 4 from the prior count and down 92 from a year ago. Meanwhile Canadian drilling moved up by 1 rig to 118, which is down 93 from 1 year ago.
US Raw Steel Production at ACUR 80.4%
In the week ending July 20, US raw steel production was 1,872,00 tons at an ACUR of 80.4 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 54,197,000 tons compared to the prox 51, 593,000 tons produced in the like period last year.
The Census Bureau June Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased 2.0 percent. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 2.3 percent May decrease.
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, up two consecutive months, increased 1.4 percent, following a 0.5 percent May increase.
- Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased 0.3 percent following a 0.5 percent May increase.
America Divided
I don’t know about you friends, but I am so tired of hearing racism, sexism, misogyny and any other of the divisive chants coming from the liberals. Everything a conservative does receives a charge like one of these…AND NONE ARE TRUE. The President is NOT a racist, that is a bold-faced lie. That fat toad Jerry Nadler said on Fox News just yesterday that Mueller lied and there is evidence of collusion in the Mueller report. He called AG Bill Barr a liar. I mean, where does this shit come from? I know Fat Nadler and Donald Trump had battles in New York and fatso lost, so he has a hard-on for the President. That’s childish, is it not? Anyway, the American taxpayer paid some $25 million plus time lost by our legislators who have done ZERO in nearly three years while they waited for the report. It is bullshit.
Meanwhile, we have these radical leftist women and the rest of their so called “squad” speaking ill of our country, the president and all conservatives, they hate America and wish to transform her, they hate Jews, they hate Israel, they want to raise your taxes, to control your life. I agree with President Trump:
If you do not like it here, leave, go back to the country of your heritage and fix that, then come back and tell us how to fix our problems.”
By the way, he named no one in his statement, he singled out no person of color…but he is a racist. It is such bullshit with these idiots.
AMERICA…LOVE HER OR LEAVE HER
Boris Johnson Becomes UK Prime Minister
On Tuesday Boris Johnson won the vote to become the British prime minister, winning the leadership of the conservative party, succeeding Theresa May on Wednesday 7/24/19. He has pledged to take Britain out of the European Union on 10/31.
The Fightin’ Side of Me by Merle Haggard
Some of you may remember these words from one of country music’s greatest artists, Merle Haggard.. We should all heed them, not doing so would be a tragedy and a catastrophe
The Fightin’ Side of Me
Merle Haggard
I hear people talkin’ bad,
About the way they have to live here in this country
Harpin’ on the wars we fight
And gripin’ ’bout the way things oughta be
And I don’t mind ’em switchin’ sides
And standin’ up for things they believe in
But when they’re runnin’ down our country, man
They’re walkin’ on the fightin’ side of me
They’re walkin’ on the fightin’ side of me
Runnin’ down a way of life
Our fightin’ men have fought and died to keep
If you don’t love it, leave it
Let this song that I’m singin’ be a warnin’
When you’re runnin’ down our country, hoss
You’re walkin’ on the fightin’ side of me
I read about some squirrelly guy
Who claims that he just don’t believe in fightin’
And I wonder just how long
The rest of us can count on bein’ free
They love our milk and honey
But they preach about some other way of livin’
But when they’re runnin’ down our country, man
They’re walkin’ on the fightin’ side of me
They’re walkin’ on the fightin’ side of me
Runnin’ down the way of life
Our fightin’ men have fought and died to keep
If you don’t love it, leave it
Let this song that I’m singin’ be a warnin’
When you’re runnin’ down our country, man
You’re walkin’ on the fightin’ side of me
You’re walkin’ on the fightin’ side of me
Runnin’ down the way of life
Our fightin’ men have fought and died to keep
If you don’t love it, leave it
Let this song that I’m singin’ be a warnin’
When you’re runnin’ down our country, hoss
You’re walkin’ on the fightin’ side of me
Mueller Testimony
Wednesday 7/24 at the Mueller testimony, every Democrat finished his/her 5 minutes with the same talking point, as typical; “No one is above the law” a bunch of feeble puppets. If you happened to take some of your valuable time to day to watch this shit show, you would have seen common sense and fact rip this collection of idiots a new asshole. A waste of two years, of Democrat legislators in the House of Representatives doing nothing for the country and at a cost of $25 million. For what? Absolutely nothing…except this should guarantee a Trump victory in 2020, which was pretty much a shoo-in anyway.
…”one had to concern oneself with the rational, not the insane-that one had to seek that which was right, because the right answer always won-that the senseless, the wrong, the monstrously unjust could not work, could not succeed, could do nothing but defeat itself.” Ayn Rand
As an American citizen, how do you want our country to move forward for you and your family:
SECURE BORDERS? OPEN BORDERS?
MORE GOVERNMENT? LESS GOVERNMENT?
A STRONG MILITARY? A WEAK MILITARY?
LESS TAXATION? MORE TAXATION?
LESS GOVERNMENT REGULATION? MORE GOVERNMENT REGULATION?
FAIR TRADE AGREEMENTS? QUID PRO QUO TRADE AGREEMENTS?
PROPER CARE FOR OUR VETERANS? DON’T CARE FOR OUR VETERANS?
MERIT BASED IMMIGRATION? THE SHIT WE HAVE NOW?
RESPONSIBLE HELP FOR THE POOR? THROW MONEY AT THE PROBLEM?
TEACH AMERICAN HISTORY TO OUR CHILDREN? ERASE AMERICAN HISTORY?
RESPECT OUR FLAG? DON’T GIVE A SHIT?
SAY THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE IN SCHOOL? WHAT IS THAT?
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
and
“KEEP AMERICAN GREAT”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”</blockquote
