Conference Board LEI Edged up in February 2020

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) edged up 0.1 percent in February, following a 0.7 percent increase in January.

The US LEI rose slightly in February, but it doesn’t reflect the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic which began to hit the US economy in early March. The slight gain in February came only from half of the LEI components. In particular, the recovery in manufacturing, which looked promising until February, will now be short-lived because of the disruption in global supply chains and falling demand.” Said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board.

CFNAI Rose in February

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.16 in February from-0.33 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from January. The index’s 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) decreased to -0.21 in February from-0.11 in January.

What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

Why are there three index values? Each month, we provide a monthly index (the CFNAI), its three-month moving average, and a diffusion index. Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so the monthly index’s three-month moving average, the CFNAI-MA3, provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth. The CFNAI Diffusion Index instead captures the degree to which a change in the monthly index is spread out among its 85 indicators, averaged over a three-month period.

What do the numbers mean? A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

US Drill Rigs Running Down 20 from Prior Week

There were 772 drill rigs running in the US last week, down 20 from the prior week, down 244 rigs from one year ago. Canadian drilling dropped by 77 rigs to 98, last week, still up 7 rigs from one year ago.

US Raw Steel Production at ACUR 80.5%

In the week ending March 14, 2020, US raw steel production was 1,878,000 net tons at an ACUR of 80.5 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced 20,131,000 net tons as compared to the 20,055,000 net tons produced in the like period last year.

Expect Dismal Economic Numbers Due to Covid-19

Naturally the economic reports we are and will be getting are from activity BEFORE the Covid-19 pandemic. Over the next few months or so, economic numbers for March and going forward, will be destroyed by the ramifications of the virus. It is only TEMPORARY. Again, our economy prior to Covid-19, was on a firm footing which I do not believe the virus will destroy and the damage it does will be temporary and the bounce-back will be significant.

I don’t think I will report economic news for a while as in the coming weeks and months, it will all most assuredly be bad news. I like to report good economic news. I am not avoiding the truth, but we all know what the cause of this is and we also know we will recover. Like I said the day after Trump was elected: the economy is a coiled spring waiting to be released. It only needs the switch to be turned on, as it did in 2016. I believe Trump will come through again.

The House has been dicking around with the pandemic stimulus for over a week. Almost had a deal until Nancy came riding into town, presented her own bill, which was a collection of liberal entitlement wishes. That was roundly criticized, but you can bet that some of the bullshit has remained in the bill…which still has not passed, like $25 million for the Kennedy Center for Performing Arts? That really helps the American worker. More bullshit.

The article below is an opinion piece in the Friday edition of the Wall Street Journal. READ IT. That the Democrats have the nerve to stuff this bill with their bullshit rampant spending is unconscionable…that the Republicans so easily accepted the blackmail is just as bad. We must drain the swamp in November. What a collection of classless, self-serving clowns.
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As an American citizen, how do you want our country to move forward for you and your family:

SECURE BORDERS? OPEN BORDERS?
MORE GOVERNMENT? LESS GOVERNMENT?
A STRONG MILITARY? A WEAK MILITARY?
LESS TAXATION? MORE TAXATION?
LESS GOVERNMENT REGULATION? MORE GOVERNMENT REGULATION?
FAIR TRADE AGREEMENTS? QUID PRO QUO TRADE AGREEMENTS?
PROPER CARE FOR OUR VETERANS? DON’T CARE FOR OUR VETERANS?
MERIT BASED IMMIGRATION? THE SHIT WE HAVE NOW?
RESPONSIBLE HELP FOR THE POOR? THROW MONEY AT THE PROBLEM?
TEACH AMERICAN HISTORY TO OUR CHILDREN? ERASE AMERICAN HISTORY?
RESPECT OUR FLAG? DON’T GIVE A SHIT?
SAY THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE IN SCHOOL? WHAT IS THAT?

Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX

I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

and

“KEEP AMERICAN GREAT”

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907

In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”