Rising to Its Highest Level Since 2000, US Consumer Confidence at Highest Reading Ever

Rising to its highest level since 2000, US Consumer Confidence at highest reading ever. The strong jobs market has pushed consumers’ assessment of the present economic situation even higher. Wells Fargo

Texas Manufacturing Accelerated and Production Index Rose 11 Points

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and reports growth in Texas manufacturing accelerated in February, according to executives responding to the survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions rose 11 points to 27.9, signaling a pick up in output growth.

General Business Activity Index at Highest Reading in 12 Years

Perceptions of broader business conditions improved further in February. The general business activity index rose to its highest reading in 12 years.

US Raw Steel Production at Highest Level Since March 11, 2017

US raw steel production rose 1.8 percent last week as mills operated at an ACUR of 76.5 percent. Last week’s total is the highest level achieved since the week ended March 11, 2017.

In the corresponding week last year mills operated at an ACUR of 75.9 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 13,540,000 tons compared to the prox 13,758,000 tons produced in the like period last year.

Real GDP Increased at an Annual Rate of 2.5% in Q4 2017

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Third and final estimate will be released about this date in March. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

Overall Economy Expanded for 106th Consecutive Month

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its February 2018 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business and it shows economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February and the overall economy expanded for the 106th consecutive month. The report was issued 3/1/18 by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, CPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)

Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

The February PMI registered 60.8 percent, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the January reading. The New Orders index decreased 1.2 percentage points. The Production Index decreased 2.5 percentage points. The Employment Index increased 5.5 percentage points. The Inventories Index increased 4.4 percentage points.

Fifth District Manufacturing Index Jumped to Second Highest Value on Record

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity results and reports manufacturing firms saw robust growth in February. The composite manufacturing index jumped to its second highest value on record.

The CFNAI Ticked Down in January

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked down to +0.12 in January from +0.14 in December. Two of the four broad indicators that make up the index decreased in January from December. The index’s three month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) decreased to +0.17 from +0.43 in December.

What do the numbers mean?

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer Fell to Lowest Level Since August 2017

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell to its lowest level in February, since August 2017. Business activity continued to expand at a softer pace than January. As in January, firms reported a slower pace of both incoming orders and output in February. The New Orders indicator fell to a six-month low, contributing the most to the Barometer’s decline.

INPUT price inflationary pressures remained elevated. Steel, wood, foam and alloy prices also quoted as particularly expensive…

a large proportion of firms are anxious about the cost of input materials and warn they could pass on these higher costs to consumers if inflationary pressures do not abate.” Said Jim Satchi, Economist at MNI indicators.

Orders for US Durable Goods unexpectedly fell in January, dragged down by bookings for commercial aircraft. Industry Week

DACA Silence

What happened to all the griping about the DACA illegal immigrants? The Dems have not said a word. I hope those who are here realize that Trump offered a pathway to citizenship for nearly 2 million people, most of whom, had they gone through the process in the 20 or so years they have been here, would already be citizens. Liberalism is the pathway to the destruction of Truth, Justice and the American Way.

School Safety

I am living in a world I do not understand. When I was a child, and all through school, there was never any fear or hesitation in going to school-by the children or their parents. You put your son or daughter on a bus in the morning or send them out to make the walk, as my sisters and I did. Our parents were completely at ease doing this. They knew where we were for 6 or 8 hours, in a seemingly secure place, among adult teachers and staff. As for us kids, we were with our friends and other classmates all day long and it was mostly fun. There was no fear of some sicko coming in and shooting up the school and the children in it.

Yesterday in my own town, it was reported that a child had posted pictures of guns on his social media page. The police investigated and reported no credible threat. Is that not unlike what happened in Florida? They had the information and did not act. So now I am hearing reports of children wearing bullet-proof vests to school, that bullet-proof backpacks are also now available. Is this what we have come to. Why? This will have a lifetime effect on the thought processes of these children and not a positive one. I still maintain that mental illness and expressions of violence by those who are mentally ill, either currently or throughout life, need to be monitored and information needs to be made available and quickly acted upon.

Family Stability

Whatever your faith is, it needs to be brought into your home and the tenets of morality need to be enforced and reinforced with your family at all times.

It would also be nice if we could get away from 50% divorce rate, or at the very least, parents should make sure they are active in the lives of their children. The kids that commit these heinous acts of violence were not born with a mental deficiency, they are the product of broken homes, a lack of morality, a lack of faith, a lack of respect, a lack of the will to be better, to accept responsibility for one’s actions, a lack of self-discipline.

Where do all these positive attributes come from? The home, the family unit, two caring parents, the church or temple in which you pray. A sense of entitlement is contrary to all these things. Nothing is owed to anyone, there are no guarantees in life and you must make your own way with persistence, effort and will…all of which will grow from a loving, caring, attentive family.

There are plenty of children who live in the lap of luxury, but they are miserable because both parents work or are absent from their lives in some significant way, they are never taught accountability. The world is full of children like that.

The world is also full of children who are middle class or in impoverished, yet they have faith, they have caring parents who discipline them and teach them morals, respect, faith. They grow up to be good citizens and parents themselves, businessmen, doctors, teachers, nurses, pilots, President of the United States etc. etc. In kind, there are plenty of children in the middle and lower class who have the same issues as the wealthy kids. Those issues do not know status, they attack for the same reasons no matter where you live or who you are.

Now, to the liberals and their assault on the NRA. Simply stupid. I am a proud, lifetime member of the NRA. The members are responsible gun owners who cherish the rights granted by the 2nd Amendment. We are not criminals, we do not want violent or mentally unstable people to own guns-or any other type of weapon. We support reasonable gun laws and there are plenty on the books. We are hunters and sport shooters and collectors, and those who simply wish to protect themselves and their families, nothing more. The companies that have chosen to halt their relationship with the NRA due to political pressure have made an egregious error and I suspect they will suffer for it financially.

Tariffs

President Trump, on Thursday, announced that he will approve new tariffs on steel and aluminum, imposing duties of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. The Dow Industrials dropped 500 points by 2:00pm. Good or bad? I do not know. I have read the experts reports on both sides of the debate and I have been unable to make a rational decision. I guess time will tell. I hope it is a good move for the USA.

Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907

In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”