GDP Decreased Again

GDP decreased again, at an annual rate of 0.6 percent following a 1.6 percent decrease in the first quarter, according to the “second” estimate of 2nd quarter GDP the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.

CFNAI Rose in July

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.27 in July from -0.25 in June. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July and all four categories improved from June. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) was unchanged at -0.09 in July.

What do the numbers mean? A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below –0.35. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

New Home Sales Fell in July

New home sales fell 12.6% in July to a 511,000-unit pace. While July’s drop was larger than expected, it is hardly a surprise given the sharp pullback in home builder confidence reported last week. With sales slowing, the inventory of new homes available for sale has risen sharply. Wells Fargo

US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week

In the week ending August 20, 2022, US raw steel production was 1,756,000 net tons at an ACUR of 79.7 percent, up 0.8 percent from the previous week ending August 13.

Slower Growth Ahead

Orders for durable goods fell flat in July, and while a better-than-expected outcome in core capitol goods shipments may be a short-run positive for GDP, a deterioration in orders including outright declines in key categories signals slower growth ahead. Wells Fargo

News Headlines

The fact that the current Marxist administration is encouraging the mass migration of illegal aliens into our country is a moral sin. Article 1, section9 of the Constitution reads: “The migration or Importation of such persons as any of the States now existing shall think proper to admit, shall not be prohibited by the Congress…” Tell me what States in our union have approved such massive illegal migration? None I am aware of. Possibly, California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania as they are liberal states, though they seem to be up in arms about Texas shipping illegals to their green cities. It is a damned bad joke.

$777 million more to Ukraine, where they continue to fight for independence but, I would sure like to know where all this fucking money is going. We give them billions in weaponry and humanitarian aid. Where is all the money going? It is like a bottomless pit over there. Who do they think they are, the United States Congress?

Did you hear our Secretary of Energy, Jennifer Granholm say “A move to clean energy will be the greatest peace plan the world has ever known.”??? How big of an idiot do you have to be to make such a stupid statement and how stupid do you think the American people are to think we would believe such obvious idiocy?

A brief synopsis of how we just got screwed with the “Inflation Reduction Act,” which name is an obvious lie and which the president called “the most significant legislation in history to tackle the climate crisis.” Also bullshit.

The foremost issue is that the act will have a trivial impact on climate change. The Biden administration claims the law will enable the US to reduce carbon emissions in 2030 by around 40% below 2005 levels. This is less than the 50% reduction biden promised last year, but it still sounds impressive. One major wrinkle: most of that cut has nothing to do with the Inflation Reduction Act.

Unlike most other nations on the planet, the US has substantially reduced its carbon emissions over the past 15 years. This is largely owing to the fracking revolution that replaced a lot of America’s coal with natural gas, which is cheaper and cleaner…the US would drop emissions by 2030 around 30%. With the new law, emissions will decline by a little over 37%. The “most significant legislation in history” will actually cut emissions by less than eight percentage points.

While the administration talks up its emission reductions, it never really seems to tout the law’s impact on temperature and seas level. If you plug the predicted emissions decline into the climate model used for all major United Nations climate reports, it turns out the global temperature will be cut by only 0.0009-degree Fahrenheit by the end of the century. This is assuming the law’s emission reductions end when its funding does after 2030. Even if you charitably assume they’ll somehow be sustained (a good bet) through 2100 without interruption, the impact on global temperature will still be almost unnoticeable, at 0.028 degree Fahrenheit.

The law will similarly have little effect on sea level. A model that calculates changes in ocean levels predicts waters will be somewhere between 0.006 and 0.08 inch lower in 2100 than they would have been without the Inflation Reduction Act.

Three-fourths of all emissions in the rest of this century will come from what are today developing countries, especially China, India and nations in Africa. Even if the US is now proclaimed a global climate leader, it will have few followers.

The cost of the act also belies the oft-repeated claim that green technologies are already cheaper than the oil and gas alternatives. If they were, they wouldn’t need enormous subsidies. If green energy is going to work, it needs to be as reliable and cheap as oil and gas.” (it ain’t) Excerpts from an opinion piece in the WSJ by Bjorn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus 8/24/22

On Wednesday the idiot in the Oval Office forgave student loans of $20,000 to those with Pell Grant balances, earning less than $125,000, $250,000 for couples, and $10,000 for those making under $125,000 per year. This is a bid to buy votes and will cost the American taxpayer some $300 billion for the $10,000 payment, add another $270 billion for those benefiting from the Pell Grant payments. Nearly $600 billion of our money. How does that sit with all you folks who paid back your student loans? Do you know what you get? Fucked…

Here we go again, the idiot in the Oval Office labeled MAGA Republicans as “semi-fascists.” Once again, they are accusing conservative Americans of being what the dems actually are-fascists.

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

and

“KEEP AMERICA GREAT”

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907

In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”