The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Survey for April

Released 4/16, it indicated manufacturing activity increased modestly in April according to respondents to this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indicators for general activity and new orders were positive but remained at low readings.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index

Friday 4/17:  released for the US, it increased 0.2 percent in March following a 0.1 percent increase in February and a 0.2 percent increase in January.

Although the leading economic index still points to a moderate expansion in economic activity, its slowing growth rate over recent months suggests weaker growth may be ahead.”

~ Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at the Conference Board

I personally trust in this index and would not begin to consider an impending correction unless we endure two consecutive months in negative territory, if we hit a third consecutive decrease, a recession is on the horizon. And the opposite is true- a recovery is ahead with three consecutive positive readings after a period of negativity. Likewise, GDP numbers portend recession with 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth and recovery with three consecutive quarters of positive growth. I guess the LEI is our warning shot over the bow of the economic ship…

US raw steel production

… rose 1.3 percent last week as mills operated at an average capability utilization rate (ACUR) of 68.6 percent. In the corresponding week last year mills operated at an ACUR of 76.6 percent. On the year, mills have operated at an ACUR of 72.6 percent down from 77 percent in the same period last year.

The April Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Released on Wednesday, it indicated that business activity was flat for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index turned slightly negative for the first time since December.

 

US industrial production slipped in the first three months of the year, providing the latest evidence of a cooling economy….the last time there was a similar sustained slowdown in industrial production was in the second quarter of 2009, the final months of the recession. A Fed survey of regional economic conditions…showed the US economy continued to expand across most of the country in February and March.”

Wall Street Journal 4/16/15

The Race Begins ….

So, Hillary announced her entry into the 2016 presidential race yesterday. Personally, I am appalled. After everything (we know of) that this woman has done, underhandedly or through a pure lack of ability, the Democrat party has chosen to coronate her as their best choice to be the leader of the most powerful country on the planet. It defies common sense. At this point, I am not really thrilled with the choices fielded by the Republican party either, but almost any of them would be a better choice than Hillary and another 4 years of the liberal, progressive agenda we have suffered under the past 8 years.

Bill and Hillary have decided to continue accepting donations to the Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Foundation from 6 foreign countries even though she is running for president. Should she win the presidency, is this not a conflict of interest? Or another Clinton “I do what I want, when I want, how I want” decision?

Marco Rubio threw his hat into the race for the Republican nomination on Monday afternoon. I have to say, I’m pretty impressed with what he has to say and how he says it. He seems sincere, humble and appreciative of the opportunities afforded to him by our great country. He is well spoken, direct and appears knowledgeable about our history and the current state of affairs. Time will tell. I am just not moved by Ted Cruz, Rand Paul or Jeb Bush.

Arms & Iran

I must apologize for an error I made last week: I suggested re-imposing the sanctions on Iran which have been removed. I am hearing that is not possible as it took much time and effort to get other countries to agree to the sanctions in the first place and apparently, getting them to join in again is unlikely, at least in the short term. The sanctions were working and it was a grave mistake to remove them. See below on the S-300 missile system sale which “could be just the beginning of countries testing the sanctions regime and a United Nations arms embargo on Iran.”

According to the Wall Street Journal the Kremlin has lifted its ban on sales of S-300 missiles to Iran, which sets ”the legal groundwork” for the Iranians to purchase a powerful air-defense system from those red bastards. “Any delivery of an air defense system would complicate air-strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel or the US should the diplomatic track fail.” There is NO DOUBT in any right thinking person’s mind but that the Iranians will continue their cheating ways and thus will continue their efforts to manufacture nuclear weapons. I pray to God our leaders wake up and walk away from this obviously poor deal which is being touted as the only option other than war. I can tell you this; if Iran attains nuclear weapons capability war WILL be the end result. They are simply evil.

Have a great weekend….

And God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

Remember these tidbits as the election cycle grinds on:

  • Fast & Furious-Americans killed by guns supplied to the drug cartels…by the Department of Justice-Eric Holder presiding. The president was clueless. No one held accountable
  • Benghazi: Four Americans killed in an assault described as the result of a viral video. This was proved to be a false narrative. This was in fact, a planned act of terror. The president was clueless. No one even knows where he was as this went down. No one held accountable
  • “At this point, what difference does it make?” Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State
  • The IRS targeting of conservative groups and individuals. No one held accountable, Lois Lerner is on paid vacation and has refused to testify. The president was clueless. No one held accountable
  • Hillary using a private server for correspondence during her term as Secretary of State against the orders of the president. She thought “it would be more convenient…” Though the records were due when she left office, they were not submitted, subpoenas were issued, which she ignored for two years. Finally, she released 30,000 of some 60,000 alleged emails then she deleted the rest of the emails and will NOT turn over the server for investigation.