New York Business Activity Increased for the First Time in Five Months

New York business activity increased for the first time in five months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey results for April 2023. The headline general business conditions index shot up 35 points. New orders and shipments surged. Inventories moved higher. Despite the increase in activity, both employment and hours worked declined for a third consecutive month.

CFNAI Increased in April

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.47 in April from +0.36 in March. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in April.

The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), ticked down to +0.48 in April from -0.49 in March.

What do the numbers mean? A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.

Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below –0.35. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week

In the week ending April 15, US raw steel production was 1,687,000 net tons at an ACUR of 75.0 percent, up 0.7 percent from the previous week ending April 8.

US Drill Rigs Running Down from Previous Week

There were 748 drill rigs running in the US last week, down 3 rigs from the previous week, up 55 rigs from one year ago. Canadian drillers shut 16 rigs down, to 111, up 8 rigs from one year ago.

April 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Reports Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline Overall

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its April 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey results and reports manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to firms responding to the survey. The survey’s broad indicators for activity remained negative, although the indexes for new orders and shipments rose. The future indicators suggest that firms’ expectations for growth over the next six months remain subdued.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) Continues to Signal the Economy is Headed for Recession

“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) was released Thursday. The index continues to signal the economy is headed for recession. The index has now declined foe twelve straight months and the 1.2% drop in March marks the largest monthly decline since April 2020 when the economy was in the worst of the pandemic. The large decline in March pushed the six-month average change to -0.8%, well below the threshold historically consistent with recession. The LEI is now nearly 8% below its peak last year, which marks the largest slide outside a recession in the history of the index going back to the late 1950’s.

While the LEI has been signaling recession for months, there have been at least some silver linings in the individual components in recent months. This was not the case in March as weakness was more widespread. In fact, two of the LEI’s components contributed positively to the index in March, and only modestly. “ Wells Fargo

“US existing-home sales declined 2.4% in March, a sluggish start to the spring selling season as higher mortgage rates squashed momentum from the previous month.” WSJ

News Headlines

There is now a total of nine Biden family members who have received money from the Chinese communist party. Do you think the big guy is compromised? Sure seems like it. All the crap China pulls and there is no accountability. Why? The Biden administration (at the top) is corrupt. They don’t investigate Joe, his brother, his son and now these new family members. You try to get away with something like that and you’ll be behind bars before you can spit.

The so-called “elites” are out of control in our country-on both sides of the aisle. Being a career politician is a license to steal, and steal they do. Now, it might be half acceptable if they were working for the good of the American republic and the American people, but they are NOT. They are working for themselves, their buddies and their donors and the American taxpayer is footing the bill.

Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigieg has mandated the development of female crash dummies. Why? To bring equity to automobile death (I guess).

In order to fight “gender inequity” in vehicle safety and crash victims.” Rep. Rosa DeLauro.

I don’t know where she is from (I suspect, California) but she is an idiot. This is what she is spending her time on for $180,000.00 per year. Go figure.

The House passed a bill that effectively bars transgender beings (I refuse to label them “women” or “men”) from competing in any female sporting event. Of course, it will die in the dem controlled senate. Protection of women in sports was done 50 years ago with the Title IX legislation. Why the Marxists want to ruin women’s sports is beyond comprehension. Just because you “feel” like a woman gives you no right to compete in women’s sports. If you have a penis, you are a biological male. You may not act like one, but you are one.




Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.


In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”