Precision Machining Index Rebounded
Registering 56.2 for January 2019, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Precision Machining Index rebounded from December’s two year low reading. Over the 2017 and 2018 calendar years, the Production Machining Index averaged 56.2, marking the fastest and longest expansionary business cycle in Gardner’s recorded history. January’s readings for production and new orders experienced unusually large upward changes. The production component of the Index in December recorded its first contractionary reading in over two years but rebounded by more than 15 points to be the leading component in January. The latest production reading is more than four points higher than the average production reading over the last two years. Similarly, new orders also experienced higher a strong expansionary reading in January.
Texas Factory Activity Continued to Expand in March
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and reports Texas factory activity continued to expand in March. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions held steady, indicating output growth continued at about the same pace as last month. Other measures of manufacturing activity also suggest continued expansion.
Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to improve in March.
CFNAI Points to Little Change in Economic Growth in February
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was released and points to little change in economic growth in February. The index edged down to -0.29 in February from -0.25 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from January. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), moved down to-0.18 in February.
Because of the partial government shutdown, federal agencies have postponed the release of several data series used to compile the CFNAI.
I suspect numbers going forward will change once the adjustments have been made.
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
Existing Home Sales Roared Back in February
After falling in three of the past four months, sales of existing homes roared back in February. Overall sales jumped 11.8%, benefitting from better weather and lower mortgage rates.
Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Grew Moderately in March
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March and reports manufacturing activity grew moderately in March, according to the latest survey. The composite index fell from 16 in February to 10 in March but remains in expansionary territory. Firms were optimistic, expecting conditions to improve in the coming months.
US Raw Steel Production ACUR of 83.1%
In the week ending March 23, 2019 US raw steel production was 1,934,000 tons at an ACUR of 83.1 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 22,244,000 tons compared to the prox 20,860,000 tons produced in the like period last year.
US Drill Rigs Running Down 10
There were 1016 drill rigs running in the US last week, down 10 rigs from the prior week. Meanwhile Canadian drilling dropped by 56 rigs to 105.
Real GDP Increased 2.2% in 2018Q4
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 according to the “third” and final estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
The GDP estimate released Thursday is based on more complete source data than were available for the initial estimate. With this estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same.
Midwest Economy Index Increased in February
The Midwest Economy Index (MEI) increased in February to +0.43 from +0.24 in January. Contributions to the February MEI from three of the four broad sectors of non-farm business activity and four of the five Seventh Federal Reserve District states increased from January.
Chicago Business Barometer Fell 6 Points
The Chicago Business Barometer fell 6 points in March to 58.7 from 64.7 in February, partially offsetting last months gain.
Looking at the 3-month average provides a better this month to the underlying trend in the economy with activity a touch lower in Q1 than in Q4. The Barometer averaged 60.0 in Q1 down 3.5% on Q4 2018 and 3.3% on Q1 2018.
Production and New Orders pulled back last month but were appreciably above their respective January levels. New Orders continued to lag Production in Q1, a quarterly trend seen nine times since 2009 with 2014 and 2016 being the exceptions.
NO COLLUSION…NO OBSTRUCTION…
Is everyone happy now? Of course not. After crying for two years; “don’t fire Mueller” he did not. “Let’s wait for the Mueller Report” it is out but the Democrats refuse to accept the outcome. Two years and $25 million dollars later with all intelligence assets at his disposal…they want more investigation. Mueller is now the enemy to them.
The House and the Senate investigated and came up with zero. Still, the left persists in their waste of time and taxpayer money. There are calls for that turd, Adam Schiff to resign. Recall he has been saying for two years that he has evidence of collusion. Where is it? All bullshit.
Over two years of harassing the President, attempting to block his every move and yet, regulations have been rolled back, individual and business taxes have been lowered, ISIS has been destroyed, lowest Black, Hispanic and female unemployment rates in history, the WALL is being built, and on and on. This IS the person our country needs at this point in time.”
Green New Deal,” I don’t think so, “free” college? I don’t think so, “free” healthcare? I don’t think so. “Medicare for all” I don’t think so. “Open borders” I don’t think so. “16-year-old children” given the right to vote? I don’t think so. “Allow illegal immigrants the right to vote,” I don’t think so. None of this rot is worth a good crap. Capitalism and free enterprise are two of the cornerstones of our republic, it drives prosperity in the world, ensures our freedom, creates jobs through innovation, risk and persistence.
Socialism does the opposite. Every single program these leftist idiots propose is designed for one thing and one thing only: to gain and keep power. To create a people who are dependent on THEM for everything. They do not give a shit about this country or the people in it.
Finally, ALL of those in the main stream media who knowingly pushed these lies on their readers and listeners, owe President Trump a public apology, both to him and to those readers and listeners.
Additionally, those in government who have so blatantly lied in their attempts to destroy this president and his administration, including: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Loretta Lynch, Susan Rice, Eric Holder, John Brennan, James Clapper, Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell, Dick Durbin, Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and all those guilty but not mentioned, in their scheme to overthrow a duly elected president. They ALL owe the president a public apology, should be censured by their colleagues in the House and Senate and should ALL be relieved of their positions for perpetuating such lies and bullshit on the American people.
Avenatti Legal Woes
The dirt-bag lawyer for Stormy Daniels, Michael Avenatti, once the darling of the Democratic party who considered running for president, has been charged with extortion and other counts over alleged threats to Nike. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan allege Avenatti threatened to publicize alleged Nike misconduct, attempting to extract more than $20 million in payments.
And Then Jussie was Freed …
Need I say anything about the release with no charges, of Jussie Smollett? Everyone knows what he did, implicating Trump supporters in his made-up racial attack scheme. The Chicago police did an exhaustive and commendable investigation and charged him with 16 felonies…but Jussie knows the Obamas and other high-powered people. The Illinois prosecutor, Kim Fox, routinely frees violent criminals, the Chicago PD is not too fond of her. One call from the Obama team (Tina Tchen, Michelle’s chief of staff) and Jussie walks free. Talk about white privilege…oops. Actually, this is an example of “elite” privilege and it knows no color. It knows money and connections.
Friday is Vietnam Veterans Day, if you know any of those veterans, offer a thank you to him or her for their service during that conflict.
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”
