Texas Factory Activity Contracted in November
Texas factory activity contracted slightly in the month, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas November 2019 Texas Manufacturing Index, per executives responding to the survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped into negative territory for the first time since mid-2016. Other measures of manufacturing activity were also negative in the month, suggesting declines.
CFNAI Fell Led by Declines in Production-Related Indicators
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.71 in October from -0.45 in September. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make-up the index decreased from September and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in October. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) moved down to -0.31 in October from -0.21 in September.
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
Consumer Confidence Index Decreased in November
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in November following a slight decline in October. The Present Situation Index based on consumers’ sentiment of current business conditions decreased. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, increased by nearly three points.
Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity Reports Activity Softened in November
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity and reports activity softened in November, weighed down by negative readings for shipments and new orders, employment declined but remained positive. The indicator for local business conditions held fairly steady. Survey respondents were optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months.
Third Quarter GDP Reports Economy Grew at 2.1% Annual Rate
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its “second” estimate of third quarter GDP and reports the economy grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate. The “third” and final estimate will be released on December 20, 2019.
US Drill Rigs Running Down 3 From Prior Count
There were 803 drill rigs running in the US as of 11/22, down 3 rigs from the prior count and down 276 rigs from the like period last year. Canadian drilling rose by 3 rigs to 137, that is down 67 rigs from a year ago.
US Raw Steel Production at ACUR 80.4%
In the week ending November 23, 2019, US raw steel production was 1,861,000 net tons at an ACUR of 80.4%. thus far this year mills have produced prox 87,198,000 net tons as compared to the prox 85,290,000 net tons produced in the like period last year.
THE DESOLATE WILDERNESS
Here beginneth the chronicle of those memorable circumstances of the year 1620 as recorded by Nathaniel Morton, keeper of the records of Plymouth Colony, based on the account of William Bradford, sometime governor thereof:
So they left that goodly and pleasant city of Leyden, which had been their resting place for above eleven years, but they knew that they were pilgrims and strangers here below, and looked not much on these things but lifted up their eyes to Heaven, their dearest country, where God hath prepared for them a city (Heb. XI, 16) and therein quieted their spirits.
When they came to Delfs-Haven they found the ship and all things ready, and such of their friends as could not come with them followed after them, and sundry came from Amsterdam to see them shipt, and to take their leaves of them. One night was spent with little sleep with the most, but with friendly entertainment and Christian discourse and other expressions of true Christian love.
The next day they went on board, and their friends with them, where truly doleful was the sight of that sad and mournful parting, to hear what sighs and sobs and prayers did sound amongst them; what tears did gush from every eye, and pithy speeches pierced each other’s heart, that sundry of the Dutch strangers that stood on the Key as spectators could not refrain from tears. But the tide (which stays for no man) calling them away, that were thus loathe to depart, their Reverend Pastor, falling down on his knees, and they all with him, with watery cheeks commended them with the most fervent prayers unto the Lord and His blessing; and then with mutual embraces and many tears they took their leaves of one another, which proved to be the last leave to many of them.
Being now past the vast ocean, and a sea of troubles before them in expectations, they had now no friends to welcome them, no inns to entertain or refresh them, no houses, or much less towns, to repair unto to seek for succor; and for the season it was winter, and they know the winters of the country know them to be sharp and violent, subject to cruel and fierce storms, dangerous to travel to known places, much more to search unknown coasts.
Besides, what could they see but a hideous and desolate wilderness, full of wilde beasts and wilde men? And what multitude of them there were, they knew not: for which way soever they turned their eyes (save upward to Heaven) they could have but little solace or content in respect of any outward object; for summer being ended, all things stand in appearance with a weather beaten face, and the whole country full of woods and thickets, represented a wild and savage hew.
If they looked behind them, there was a mighty ocean which they had passed, and was now as a main bar or gulph to separate them from all the civil parts of the world.
AND THE FAIR LAND
Anyone whose labors take him into the far reaches of the country, as ours lately have done, is bound to mark how the years have made the land grow fruitful.
This is indeed a big country, a rich country, in a way no array of figures can measure and so in a way past belief of those who have not seen it. Even those who journey through its Northeastern complex, into the Southern lands, across the central plains and to its Western slopes can only glimpse a measure of the bounty of America.
And a traveler cannot but be struck on his journey by the thought that this country, one day, can be even greater. America, though many know it not, is one of the underdeveloped countries of the world; what it reaches for exceeds by far what it has grasped.
So the visitor returns thankful for much of what he has seen, and, in spite of everything, an optimist about what his country might be. Yet the visitor, if he is to make an honest report, must also note the air of unease that hangs everywhere.
For the traveler, as travelers have been always, is a much questioned as questioning. And for all the abundance he sees, he finds the questions put to him ask where men may repair for succor from the troubles that beset them.
His countrymen cannot forget the savage face of war. Too often they have been asked to fight in strange and distant places, for no clear purpose they could see and for no accomplishment they can measure. Their spirits are not quieted by the thought that the good and plenty bounty that surrounds them can be destroyed in an instant by a single bomb. Yet they find no escape, for their survival and comfort now depend on unpredictable strangers in far-off corners of the globe.
How they turn from melancholy when at home they see young arrayed against old, black against white, neighbor against neighbor, so that they stand in peril of social discord. Or not despair when they see that the cities and countryside are in need of repair, yet find themselves threatened by scarcities of the resources that sustain their way of life. Or when, in the face of these challenges, they turn for leadership to men in high places-only to find those men as frail as any others.
So sometimes the traveler is asked whence will come their succor. What is to preserve their abundance, or even their civility? How can they pass on to their children a nation as strong and free as the one they inherited from their forefathers? How is their country to endure these cruel storms that beset it from without and from within?
Of course the stranger cannot quiet their spirits. For it is true that everywhere men turn their eyes today much of the world has a truly wild and savage hue. No man, if he be truthful, can say that the specter of war is banished. Nor can he say that when men or communities are put upon their own resources they are sure of solace; nor be sure that men of diverse kinds and diverse views can live peaceably together in a time of troubles.
But we can all remind ourselves that the richness of this country was not born in the resources of the earth, though they be plentiful, but in the men that took its measure. For that reminder is everywhere-in the cities, towns, farms, roads, factories, homes, hospitals, schools that spread everywhere over that wilderness.
We can remind ourselves that for all our social discord we yet remain the longest enduring society of free men governing themselves without benefit of kings or dictators. Being so, we are the marvel and the mystery of the world, for that enduring liberty is no less a blessing than the abundance of the earth.
And we might remind ourselves also, that if those men setting out to Delfs-Haven had been daunted by the troubles they saw around them, then we could not this autumn be thankful for a fair land.
These editorials have appeared annually in the Wall Street Journal since 1961
As an American citizen, how do you want our country to move forward for you and your family:
SECURE BORDERS? OPEN BORDERS?
MORE GOVERNMENT? LESS GOVERNMENT?
A STRONG MILITARY? A WEAK MILITARY?
LESS TAXATION? MORE TAXATION?
LESS GOVERNMENT REGULATION? MORE GOVERNMENT REGULATION?
FAIR TRADE AGREEMENTS? QUID PRO QUO TRADE AGREEMENTS?
PROPER CARE FOR OUR VETERANS? DON’T CARE FOR OUR VETERANS?
MERIT BASED IMMIGRATION? THE SHIT WE HAVE NOW?
RESPONSIBLE HELP FOR THE POOR? THROW MONEY AT THE PROBLEM?
TEACH AMERICAN HISTORY TO OUR CHILDREN? ERASE AMERICAN HISTORY?
RESPECT OUR FLAG? DON’T GIVE A SHIT?
SAY THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE IN SCHOOL? WHAT IS THAT?
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
“KEEP AMERICAN GREAT”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”</blockquote