Recession Concerns Diminishing Somewhat Recession concerns diminishing somewhat suggests a Wells Fargo statement. Small business optimism bested expectations in July, notching its third consecutive improvement. The fact that small firms’ economic outlooks continue to improve despite recent macroeconomic headwinds suggests that recession concerns may be diminishing somewhat.” Wells Fargo I must disagree with this. You [...]
Labor Market Gradually Cooling The labor market gradually cooling, as the US economy created 187,000 jobs in July, the 2nd sub-200k report. The number was still strong enough to keep downward pressure on unemployment. Texas Manufacturing Activity Declined The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its July 2023 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey results and reports factory [...]
Highest Consumer Confidence Since July 2021 Highest consumer confidence since 2021, not since the outset of the pandemic has consumers’ assessment of the present situation been stronger than it is today. Meanwhile, amid broad improvement in labor market measures, overall consumer confidence rose to its highest level since July 2021, and expectations rose as well. The [...]
LEI Below Recession Threshold Over a Year LEI below recession threshold over a year fell again in June, down 0.7%. This marks the 15th consecutive monthly decline. Total housing starts declined sharply during June, partially reversing May’s robust gain. The drop was broad-based, with both single-family and multifamily production pulling back during the month. Business [...]
June CPI Up Slightly The June CPI up slightly, came in at 3.00%, up 0.2 percent over the month of June, a steep decline from the May reading of, I believe, 5.6%. US machine shops and other manufacturers increased their purchases of machine tools by 10.0% from April to May, with new orders totaling $362.77 [...]
Seventeen-month High Index in Consumer Confidence A seventeen-month high, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions rose along with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in June. Manufacturing Activity Remained Relatively Flat in June The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity and reports manufacturing [...]
Residential Construction Gathering Momentum Residential construction gathering momentum despite higher interest rates. Total housing starts soared 21.7% over the month of May to a 1.63-million-unit annual pace. While total starts are still down 15.5% on a year-to-date basis, May’s surprising upturn was the strongest since October 2016 and the eighth largest monthly gain since at [...]
US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week US raw steel production up 1.0 percent from the previous week ending May 27, 2023, in the week ending June 3, 2023 it was 1,754,000 net tons at an ACUR of78 percent. US Drill Rigs Running Down from Previous Week There were 696 drill rigs running in [...]
“Present Situation and Expectations” Indices Declined “Present Situation and Expectations” indices declined and The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in May, to 102.3 from 103.7 in April. The US economy added 339,000 jobs in May, greater than the 190,000 jobs forecast. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Reports Manufacturing Activity Remained Relatively Flat The Federal Reserve [...]
Deterioration in Business Conditions Deterioration in business conditions reported by results of The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond May 2023 Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity, according to executives responding to the survey. The composite manufacturing index fell from -10 in April to -15 in May. Two of its three component indexes-shipments and new orders-declined. [...]
