First Estimate of 2022Q4 GDP at 2.9 Percent The first estimate of 2022Q4 GDP at 2.9 percent, but drilling into the numbers shows housing in a recession, taking transportation out of the equation leaves GDP growth in a negative position. US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week In the week ending 1/21/23, US raw [...]
Inflation is Declining, Reporting a Sixth Consecutive Monthly Drop Inflation is declining. Running at a 6.5% annual rate, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released Thursday, that is the sixth consecutive monthly decline, though still far from the fed’s 2% target, it is headed in the right direction. US Raw Steel Production Down from [...]
Manufacturing Index Slipped into Correction Territory The manufacturing index slipped into correction territory in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). It dipped to 48.4, the lowest number for this factory bellwether since the early days of the pandemic in May 2020. New orders and production were both lower and both were also [...]
US Consumer Confidence Index Highest Level Since April 2022 The US Consumer Confidence Index highest level since April 2022, increased in December, following back-to-back monthly declines. Growth in Texas factory Activity in December The Federal reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and reports growth in Texas factory activity resumed in December. [...]
IN HOC ANNO DOMINI When Saul of Tarsus set out on his journey to Damascus the whole of the known world lay in bondage. There was one state, and it was Rome. There was one master for it all, and he was Tiberius Caesar. Everywhere there was civil order, for the arm of the Roman [...]
THE DESOLATE WILDERNESS Here beginneth the chronicle of those memorable circumstances of the year 1620 as recorded by Nathaniel Morton, keeper of the records of Plymouth Colony, based on the account of William Bradford, sometime governor thereof: So they left that goodly and pleasant city of Leyden, which had been their resting place for above [...]
Housing Starts Dropped Again Housing starts dropped again, declining 4.2%, to a 1.425 million-unit pace in October, the second straight monthly drop. Total housing starts are down 8.8% year-over-year basis. Building permits dropped 2.4% during the month. Overall, the housing correction continues with little indication that a bottom is in sight. Wells Fargo US Raw [...]
Lower Than Expected Prices Lower-than-expected prices are certainly welcome news after a string of elevated monthly increases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose “only” 0.4% in October while excluding food and energy. That said, consumer price inflation is well above the Fed’s target rate of 2%, which likely will keep the FOMC biased towards over-tightening, [...]
Marginal Improvements in October Marginal improvements in October, after the across-the-board September plunge in most indicators. The Chicago Business Barometer dipped a further half-point to 45.2 in October. Growth in Texas Factory Activity Continued in October The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and reports growth in Texas factory activity [...]
Increased Exports, Consumer Spending Reflected in Q3 Increase Increased exports, consumer spending reflected in Q3 increase were partly offset by a decrease in housing investment. In its advance estimate (of 3) of Q3 GDP the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent, in contrast to a 0.6% decrease [...]
