Manufacturing Output Declined

The 2.0 percent drop in utilities output was broadly expected and the 0.8 percent drop in mining should also come as little surprise in the context of the steep decline in energy prices. What is more disappointing, in our view, is that manufacturing output declined, this component, which comprises roughly three quarters of all industrial production, has been a stalwart, notching modest gains even as other measures have declined. That changed with the Industrial Production Report today. Not only did manufacturing slip 0.1 percent in December, last month’s slight increase was revised to a scant 0.1 percent decline. Small as these declines might be, on the razor’s edge between growth and contraction, even small declines take on additional significance. In a special report earlier this week, we argued that the manufacturing sector, while battered and bruised, is not yet in recession. We are not retracting that call now, but part of our justification just got revised away.

Until that data hit the wires, the data affirmed that manufacturing output was growing. Now it is not.

All that said we are not throwing in the towel yet. A lot of the recent weakness in manufacturing is concentrated in motor vehicle and parts production. After consecutive monthly declines, this category fell at a 7.9 percent annualized rate over the past three months. Stripping away this notoriously volatile category, manufacturing production was up in December and still growing at a 1.3 percent annualized rate. Production of business equipment as well as construction supplies was also positive in December.

Wells Fargo Economics Group

US Raw Steel Production

US raw steel production rose 3.6 percent last week on top of a 10 percent gain the previous week as mills operated at an ACUR of 69.1 percent. In the corresponding week last year mills operated at an ACUR of 76.4 percent. On the year, mills have produced approx. 4,700,000 tons at an ACUR of 65.3 percent, down from the approx. 5,400,000 tons at an ACUR of 76.4 percent in the like period last year.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia January 2016 Business Outlook Survey

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its January 2016 Business Outlook Survey reporting manufacturing conditions contracted modestly according to firms responding. The indicator for general activity remained negative; however it rebounded from a lower reading in December.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was released today and reports the index moved up to -0.22 in December from -0.36 in November. The index’s three month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) decreased to -0.24 in December from -0.19 in November. December’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend.

Keep an eye on this monthly report, if the CFNAI-MA3 continues to fall to a level of -0.7 it is likely a recession has begun.


Iranian Trade Offs

The sand crickets in Iran released five American hostages this weekend who should have been released as part of the nuke deal with these liars or at least prior to agreeing to the deal. Instead, it appears Iran held on to them to ensure sanctions were relieved as per the deal. The five were traded for seven imprisoned Iranian nationals and a commitment by the US to DROP THEIR EFFORTS TO ARREST MORE THAN A DOZEN OTHERS. They got their sanction relief, 7 murderers released and another dozen or so permitted to continue their terrorist activities unencumbered by the threat of capture.

WHAT IS OBAMA DOING? Releasing the enemy for his damned legacy, that’s what. He then has the nerve to say something to the effect of “this shows what diplomacy can accomplish.” A seriously stupid move by this administration. But, we got our citizens back, yes, but they should have been released many months ago. Then,

The head of the United Nations atomic agency said Saturday evening that Iran had completed all steps needed to implement last July’s nuclear deal, triggering a process that will lead, within hours, to relief from years of tight international sanctions on Tehran.”

Wall Street Journal

On Sunday, the US Treasury Department sanctioned nearly a dozen Iranian-linked entities for their alleged role in Tehran’s ballistic-missile program. Ballistic missiles are primarily used to carry nuclear warheads…but wait, Iran is not seeking to obtain a nuclear weapon, right? Really???

American Politics

So, the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States is currently under investigation by the FBI. Her closest competition, Bernie Sanders, is a damned socialist and wants to tax 90% of your earning…for starters. Free college, free healthcare, $15 minimum wage, paid leave and on and on. Give, give, give, give…vote for me, vote for me. Christmas every day in the good ol’ USA (can I say Christmas?)

Hillary, in her quest to stay even with the “bern”, wants the same things, and more. Who do they think is going to pay for all this crap? Bend over because they are looking at you….And me, your kids and mine, your grandchildren and mine. WE HAVE TO STOP THIS NOW! You must vote, you must encourage all like-minded people to vote conservative. Sway whomever you can, speak the truth about what is happening to our country.

Left Platform Right Platform
Higher taxes on your personal income Lower taxes on personal income
Higher taxes on business Lower taxes on business
More entitlements Less entitlement
We’ll give you what you need Personal responsibility
Shrink our military Make our military the strongest
Obamacare Repeal & Replace
More regulations Less regulations
No guns Protect the 2nd Amendment
Denounce America as evil Praise the opportunities in America
Open borders Secure our borders

Should there be any question of preference from true Americans? Which do you believe to be best for the country and her people?

Did you see the Democratic debates Sunday night? Don’t worry, no one else did either, that’s the way the liberals planned it. No wonder Sander’s is gaining ground on Hillary, she is conspicuously missing from the news.


Meanwhile in Europe, which has opened its doors to the middle eastern refugees, have been experiencing attacks on their women, several being raped, many being groped and assaulted. This is THEIR culture, not western culture. These people will NOT assimilate into western society. They belong in the desert with their camels and tents. And yet, Obama wants to allow tens of thousands of them into the United States with the knowledge that we are not able to properly vet those entering. Again, this is just plain stupid.

In my view Trump and the other Republican candidates are right. STOP THEM FROM COMING HERE until we have the capability to properly vet them and if that is not possible, screw ‘em, we cannot let them in. This is not racist or anti-immigration, it is common sense. Why would we invite the enemy into our country? Why?

The Oscars

What is up with these liberal idiots ranting about the Oscar awards? These awards are based on merit, on exemplary work in the performing arts. It is not an issue of race unless you make it one. Is it possible that no black person created a performance worthy of the award in 2015? Spike Lee is a racist if I ever saw one, he should shut his pie hole. Chris Rock “the Oscars are the white BET awards.” Where do they come up with this crap. BET? Try WET, see if you get away with it. Miss Black USA pageant? Try having a Miss White USA pageant. All black colleges? Try to have an all white college. I think the charges of racism are hugely misplaced.

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

Remember these tidbits as the election cycle grinds on:

  • Fast & Furious-Americans killed by guns supplied to the drug cartels…by the Department of Justice-Eric Holder presiding. The president was clueless. No one held accountable
  • Benghazi: Four Americans killed in an assault described as the result of a viral video. This was proved to be a false narrative. This was in fact, a planned act of terror. The president was clueless. No one even knows where he was as this went down. No one held accountable
  • “At this point, what difference does it make?” Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State
  • The IRS targeting of conservative groups and individuals. No one held accountable, Lois Lerner is on paid vacation and has refused to testify. The president was clueless. No one held accountable
  • Hillary using a private server for correspondence during her term as Secretary of State against the orders of the president. She thought “it would be more convenient…” Though the records were due when she left office, they were not submitted, subpoenas were issued, which she ignored for two years. Finally, she released 30,000 of some 60,000 alleged emails then she deleted the rest of the emails and will NOT turn over the server for investigation.