The manufacturing sector’s woes are deepening amid an economic slowdown in China and other emerging markets

Manufacturing output-the biggest component of the index, measuring the production of everything from paper clips to bulldozers-declined 0.1% in September and 0.4% the prior month. The figures suggest that the manufacturing sector’s woes are deepening amid an economic slowdown in China and other emerging markets, along with a devaluation of foreign currencies that has effectively raised the price of American goods.”

Wall Street Journal

US industrial production slipped for a second consecutive month in September as mining and manufacturing output declined, dropping 0.2 percent, according to the Federal Reserve.”

American Metal Market

From an article in the 10/20 issue of American Metal Market:

Special bar quality (SBQ) steel prices have trended down following ferrous scrap’s October plunge, market participants said.

Prices have fallen about $50 per ton ($2.50 per hundredweight) across various grades, they noted.

The recent cuts put prices for hot rolled 1-inch diameter carbon round bar at $34/cwt FOB/mill, one northeastern service center source said.

Price cuts based on scrap will not stimulate extra buying and will just devalue inventories. The mills were hoping that their recent price drops would stimulate some buying and restocking of inventories, but it hasn’t worked out that way for them.

The entire market is weak…not for pricing but for volume…everybody’s continuing to watch their inventories…

On a year-on-year basis, carbon steel shipments have fallen every month thus far this year, logging a 17.6 percent drop in September, according to MSCI data.”

US Raw Steel Production

  • US raw steel production retreated 1.8 percent from the previous week as mills operated at an ACUR of 70.1 percent.
  • In the corresponding week last year mills operated at an ACUR of 76.5 percent.
  • On the year mills have produced approx. 71,000,000 tons at an ACUR of 72.4 percent, down from the approx. 77,000.000 tons produced in the like period last year at an ACUR of 77.8 percent.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 10/22:

The CFNAI ticked down to -0.37 in September from -0.39 in August. The index’s three month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), decreased to -0.09 in September from +0.01 in August. September’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.”

From the accompanying graph, it is evident that we have been below trend for most, if not all, of this year.


The Conference Board Leading Economic Index released 10/22:

The LEI for the US declined 0.2 percent in September. The index was unchanged in both July and August.”

Despite September’s decline, the US LEI still suggests economic expansion will continue, although at a moderate pace. The recent weakness in stock markets, the manufacturing sector and housing permits was offset by gains in financial indicators, and to a lesser extent, improvements in consumer expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance. The US economy is on track for moderate growth of about 2.5 percent in the coming quarters, despite the mixed global economic landscape.”

Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at the Conference Board

Personally, I think that report is a bunch of crap and over time the numbers will prove that. Without the good jobs afforded by industry (which is now in the toilet-except for automotive) no ships will rise with the tide. “Financial indicators” gained ground? Big deal, what is it that they produce? They do make money but they produce nothing-much like the government, which doesn’t make or produce anything.

Joe Biden

Joe Biden is not entering the presidential race. He did, however, leave the door open should that crook, Hillary, be indicted by the FBI. She should be indicted. Will it happen? Unfortunately it is not likely due to the connections of both Hillary and the Democratic machine. So sad to have blatant liars and those unworthy of office get away with their nonsense…time and time again.

Benghazi Hearing

Thursday: I am watching the Select Committee on Benghazi investigation on television. The democrats on the panel seem to have exonerated Hillary of any responsibility as their main goal-not in finding the truth. They don’t ask her any relevant questions, they tell her what a great job she did as Secretary, they tell Republicans it is a witch hunt, that there have been 7 previous investigations which have revealed nothing and that we have spent $ 4.7 million dollars on this dalliance (if she is innocent, why the years of stonewalling? Of not providing requested information?)

Hillary, when uncomfortable or feeling targeted, just rests her head on her hand and feigns disinterest, boredom or a combination of both. The DID get to prove the point that she KNEW the attack was not caused by a video and subsequently she blatantly lied to the American people for over a week. Honest? Trustworthy? Competent? Enough said.

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

Remember these tidbits as the election cycle grinds on:

  • Fast & Furious-Americans killed by guns supplied to the drug cartels…by the Department of Justice-Eric Holder presiding. The president was clueless. No one held accountable
  • Benghazi: Four Americans killed in an assault described as the result of a viral video. This was proved to be a false narrative. This was in fact, a planned act of terror. The president was clueless. No one even knows where he was as this went down. No one held accountable
  • “At this point, what difference does it make?” Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State
  • The IRS targeting of conservative groups and individuals. No one held accountable, Lois Lerner is on paid vacation and has refused to testify. The president was clueless. No one held accountable
  • Hillary using a private server for correspondence during her term as Secretary of State against the orders of the president. She thought “it would be more convenient…” Though the records were due when she left office, they were not submitted, subpoenas were issued, which she ignored for two years. Finally, she released 30,000 of some 60,000 alleged emails then she deleted the rest of the emails and will NOT turn over the server for investigation.