Business conditions index highest in five years

Business conditions index highest in five years, per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey results for October. It reports business activity rose sharply in New York State in October, according to firms responding to the survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed eighteen points to 25.5, its highest level in nearly five years. New orders increased and shipments grew, delivery times lengthened substantially and supply availability worsened further. Inventories increased, employment continued to rise modestly and the average workweek rose. Firms continued to expect conditions to improve in the months ahead, though optimism moderated.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey results and reports manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand in October according to firms responding to the survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all declined but remained positive this month. Firms continued to expect overall growth over the next six months, but most future indicators declined.

US raw steel production down from previous week

In the week ending October 10, 2026, US raw steel production was 1,796,000 net tons at an ACUR of 77.8 percent, down 0.3 percent from the previous week ending October 3, 2026.
Adjusted YTD production through October 10, 2026 was73,763,000 net tons at an ACUR of 79.0 percent.

US drill rigs running no change from previous week

In the week ending 10/16/2026 there were 603 drill rigs running in the US, no change from the previous week ending 10/9/2026. This is up fifty-five rigs from one year ago. Canadian drillers shut five wells, to 217 which is nineteen more drill rigs than one year ago.

In a continuing investigation, agents from Homeland Security Investigations on Monday raided the home of Ilhan Omar, the Somali with the storied and unclear past who was somehow elected to the United States House of Representatives. People say she was elected because Obama imported thousands of Somali’s into Dearborn, Michigan which gave her the edge she needed to win her seat. Frankly, I hope they ship her back to where she came from. She hates the United States and only wishes bad for our country.

The Iranians somehow have the entire middle east on fire, their proxy, the Houthi’s have bombed Saudi airport terminals the past two days killing many innocent travelers. There is fighting in Lebanon, Yemen, Qatar, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, everywhere…everywhere the Muslims are seems to be on fire; Europe, Africa, Asia. Diversity, equity and inclusion. You can take that crap and shove it where the sun doesn’t shine. Look where it has gotten us.

Gerard Baker, Editor at Large at the Wall Street Journal wrote an interesting editorial Tuesday comparing “affordability” between the Biden and Trump administrations, and the blatant lies being spewed by the left and the media. Please take note. Excerpts follow:

It’s the economy, stupid” was James Carville’s message to Bill Clinton and displayed on the wall of his 1992 campaign headquarters wall. Pretty much common sense, the material sense of the people matters. This “is the primary pre-explanation for the drubbing Republicans expect next month. But now, as then, it may be that a flawed perception of the economy rather than economic reality is driving voting behavior, and that now, as then, the US is in the early stages of an economic golden age.”

It is invidious to tell voters that what they believe isn’t true; but today, as then, there can be no other explanation for the level of popular dyspepsia with an economy that, in macro terms, is in robust health.

The best sense of how big a disconnect there is between polling and economic facts can be had by comparing President Trump’s current ratings with his immediate predecessor’s at the nadir of America’s recent economic performance.

The latest Quinnipiac poll gives Mr. Trump a 31% approval rating on the economy. In June 2022 Joe Biden enjoyed-if that’s the word-a higher rating, 33%.

That month consumer prices were up 9.1 % from a year earlier, the highest inflation in 40 years. In the first half of that year, the economy contracted at a rate of just over 1%. Real wages were falling: Between January 2021, and June 2022, hourly earnings adjusted for inflation had fallen by 4.1 %. The rate on a 30-year mortgage had almost doubled, from 2.65% to 5.1%. average gasoline prices had more than doubled, from $2.39 a gallon to more than $5. The S&P 500 Index of leading stocks increased just 1% in the first 18 months of the Biden term. The unemployment rate was the one bright spot, at 3.6%

Contrast that with today. Consumer price inflation is at 3.4%, up since the beginning of Mr. Trump’s term, but well below where it was four years ago. Gasoline prices and interest rates are up, but not by as much as they had increased under the Democrats. Gasoline is up about 65% since Inauguration Day, at around $5 a gallon. Mortgage rates are at 7%, just about where they were when Mr. Trump took office.

In the first half of this year growth averaged more than 2.4% a year. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank estimates third-quarter growth at 3.6%.
Real wages are up. The S&P 500 is up about 35%. Unemployment is higher than it was four years ago, but at 4.1% is still historically low.

By just about any measure, Mr. Trump’s economy is in much better shape than his predecessor’s was, yet the media portrays things otherwise and Trump gets lower marks.

There are several plausible explanations. Voters care less about the relative softening in inflation in the past two years and more about the continuing cumulative increase in prices. After decades of almost no inflation, prices have risen by 25%+ since 2020. The incumbent (Trump) is paying the price. Voters may also see a clearer link between Mr. Trump’s policies and their current challenges than they saw with Mr. Biden. Tariffs and a war that has pushed up energy prices both directly feed higher costs. There is also the sense that the benefits of the current economic strength are distributed even less equally than usual.

Yet as Mr. Clinton’s election in the midst of perceived misery coincided with the start of a long economic boom, so Americans may come to look back on 2026 as the early stages of a period of prolonged prosperity.

Growth is accelerating. Underlying inflation pressures are easing-consumer prices minus food and energy rose by 2.4% during the year ending in August, down from 3.3% when Mr. Trump took office. The artificial-intelligence investment boom is the primary driver of growth, and if the productivity increases investors expect from it materialize, growth may be about to exceed anything we have seen for decades.

Which would give a whole new meaning to “the economy, stupid.”

In my view, just as Bill Clinton rode the wave of Ronald Reagan’s economic policies, and Joe Biden did the same following Trumps first term, I suspect the same would be true going back to the 80’s or 90’s when the Democratic party fell off the wagon and landed in left field.

I don’t know how they keep doing it, but the Iranians sunk two Emirati cargo ships in Hormuz, and the Houthi’s are causing more problems in Yemen. Hasn’t the world had enough of these vermin? President Trump must be scratching his head. Personally, I would unleash the militaries of our government, Israel and our allies in the Gulf region. Let us rid the world of this problem.

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN