CFNAI Rose in July CFNAI rose in July, led by improvements in production-related indicators. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.12 in July from -0.33 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from June, and two of the four broad categories made positive [...]
Survey Future Indexes Positive but Declined Survey future indexes positive but declined, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey results. It reports manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to firms responding to the survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive [...]
Recession Concerns Diminishing Somewhat Recession concerns diminishing somewhat suggests a Wells Fargo statement. Small business optimism bested expectations in July, notching its third consecutive improvement. The fact that small firms’ economic outlooks continue to improve despite recent macroeconomic headwinds suggests that recession concerns may be diminishing somewhat.” Wells Fargo I must disagree with this. You [...]
Labor Market Gradually Cooling The labor market gradually cooling, as the US economy created 187,000 jobs in July, the 2nd sub-200k report. The number was still strong enough to keep downward pressure on unemployment. Texas Manufacturing Activity Declined The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its July 2023 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey results and reports factory [...]
LEI Below Recession Threshold Over a Year LEI below recession threshold over a year fell again in June, down 0.7%. This marks the 15th consecutive monthly decline. Total housing starts declined sharply during June, partially reversing May’s robust gain. The drop was broad-based, with both single-family and multifamily production pulling back during the month. Business [...]
Inflation is Still High, but It Has Come Down Inflation is still high, at over two times the Fed target of 2 percent, but it has come down from 9 percent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent in April, on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in March, the US Bureau [...]
First Estimate of 2022Q4 GDP at 2.9 Percent The first estimate of 2022Q4 GDP at 2.9 percent, but drilling into the numbers shows housing in a recession, taking transportation out of the equation leaves GDP growth in a negative position. US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week In the week ending 1/21/23, US raw [...]
Technology Equipment Highest Total Since Q1 Technology equipment highest total since Q1, with machine tool manufacturers booking $460.7 million worth of manufacturing technology equipment in the latest report. But long lead times and a potential economic slowdown threaten sustained order activity in the months ahead. US Raw Steel Production Down from Previous Week In the [...]
Optimism Rose for First Time Since December 2021 Optimism rose for first time since December 2021, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. July Consumer Price Index at 8.5 Percent The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released Wednesday, pegs inflation for July at 8.5 percent, a reduction, yes, but still [...]
A 26th Consecutive Month of Growth Achieved by Overall Economy A 26th consecutive month of growth in the overall economy was reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in its July 2022 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. It further states economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in July. The report was issued by [...]
