Chicago Business Barometer improved in October

Chicago Business Barometer improved 3.2 points to 43.8 in October. The index is now back above the 2025 average of 43.1. The index has remained below 50 for twenty-three consecutive months. The increase was driven mainly by an increase in New Orders, alongside rises in Production and Order Backlogs. All business activity components increased in October. ISM

Consumer confidence slipped in October

Consumer confidence slipped in October amid persistent pessimism about job availability, rising worries about income prospects, and future business conditions. Inflation expectations also ticked slightly higher.

US raw steel production up from previous week

In the week ending October 25, 2025, US raw steel production was 1,747,000 net tons at an ACUR of 76.3 percent, up 0.2 percent from the previous week ending October 18, 2025.
Adjusted YTD production through October 25, 2025 was 73,711,000 net tons at an ACUR of 77.0 percent.

Lowered interest rates

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve Bank lowered interest rates by 0.25 percentage point, bringing rates to 3.750 to 4.0 percent. The stock market yawned.

Texas factory activity continued to expand in October

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey results and reports Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, according to executives responding to the survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was unchanged at 5.2, indicating below average output growth for the second consecutive month. Other measures of manufacturing activity moved down or held steady this month.

Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened somewhat this month. The general business activity index increased four points, but remained in negative territory.

Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity reports activity was slow in October

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity results and reports activity was slow in October, according to executives responding to the survey. The composite manufacturing index rose to -4 in October from -17 in September. All three of its component indexes increased.

Real GDP increased

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025, according to the third and final estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

News Headlines

Trump is in Asia this week, meeting with Xi Jinping on Thursday, this is an important meeting in many ways. The president has won some tariff agreements with a handful of Southeast Asian nations already, meeting with the new prime minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi on Monday where he was heartily welcomed. Ms. T21`2akaichi is Japan’s first female prime minister.

As of Tuesday morning, the government remains closed. Both sides have dug in, in my view this is a Democrat shutdown, as I have previously mentioned.

Large corporations are laying off thousands of workers as they streamline operations to accommodate the rise of AI productivity. While everyone knew this would happen, it is also true that the private sector is beginning to come out of its trough and has been adding jobs, 14,250 in the four weeks ended 10/11. This growth in employment suggests the US economy is emerging from its recent job losses.

Friday is day 31 of the government shutdown. As I have said, this is on the socialist Democrats. Schumer and the Democrats are holding the government hostage to their demands and are hurting the American public in doing so. The following are excerpts from an editorial in Friday’s Wall Street Journal, titled “ The Truth About ObamaCare Costs”

Every day come warnings that Americans will be priced out of ObamaCare next year if Republicans in Congress don’t renew pandemic subsidies. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) this week released a fact sheet on ObamaCare’s pricing next year, and here is the most important line: “The average Marketplace premium after tax credits is projected to be $50 per month for the lowest cost plan in 2026 for eligible enrollees.” Nearly 60% of “eligible enrollees will have access to a plan in their chosen health plan category at or below $50 after tax credits.”

You read that right: the majority of enrollees will continue to have a plan at $50 a month or cheaper, even without the extra pandemic-era subsidy that is expiring (and causing the Democrats to pursue their demands for more taxpayer money).

Taxpayers on average are “projected to cover 91% of the lowest cost plan premium in 2026 for eligible enrollees” in ObamaCare, CMS reports. Next year’s sticker shock is largely concentrated in Americans age 55 and older with incomes above 400% of the poverty line-affluent early retirees who represent a fraction of overall enrollment and aren’t a compelling case for an income transfer that could cost some $450 billion over ten years (what the socialists are seeking).”

See? They cannot help themselves, they hate our country and everything it stands for. Today’s Democratic party is nothing like what it should be and it is headed to the scrap heap. In summary, the Democrats are doing this out of greed. If they did not have other peoples money to spend, they would have nothing to run on. What good policy ideas have they presented to the American people? Can you name even one?

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

“KEEP AMERICA GREAT”

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907

In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”