Led by Declines in Production-Related Indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index Fell in July
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.36 in July from +0.03 in June. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) moved up to -0.14 in July from -0.30 in June.
What is the National Activity Index?
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
Why are there three index values?
Each month, we provide a monthly index (the CFNAI), its three-month moving average, and a diffusion index. Month-to-month movements can be volatile, so the monthly index’s three-month moving average, the CFNAI-MA3, provides a more consistent picture of national economic growth. The CFNAI Diffusion Index instead captures the degree to which a change in the monthly index is spread out among its 85 indicators, averaged over a three-month period.
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
This has historically been a good index to follow. If you follow The View, you will see the monthly index report right here. Keep and eye on the reported monthly numbers and interpret them with the underlined values above.
US Drill Rigs Running Down 19 Last Week
There were 916 drill rigs running in the US last week, down 19 rigs from the previous count. Meanwhile, Canadian drilling dropped by 3 to 139.
US Raw Steel Production was at ACUR 80.6%
In the week ending August 24, 2019 US raw steel production was 1,877,000 tons at an ACUR of 80.6 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 63,546,000 tons compared to the prox 60,862,000 tons produced in the like period last year. AISI
BEA Reports Economy Grew at 2.0% Annual Rate
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “second” estimate of second quarter GDP and reports the economy grew at a 2.0% annual rate. The third and final estimate of Q2 GDP will be released in one month.
Climate Change De-Bunked :
I will stop the seas from rising…” Barack Obama
The world will end in twelve years!” Alexandra Ocasio Cortez
August 2019; Barack and Michelle Obama purchase a $15,000,000.00 mansion in Martha’s Vineyard, which happens to be on the coast of the Atlantic Ocean. Really? With the world ending and the seas rising? “They must think you’re stupid!” another quote from Obama
Speaking of income inequality, how do the Obamas amass enough of a fortune to pay $15 million of their own money for this soon to be under the water mansion?
Obama is a millionaire
Bernie Sanders is a millionaire
Nancy Pelosi is a millionaire
Elizabeth Warren is a millionaire
Beto O’Rourke is a millionaire
Joe Biden is a millionaire
We all know Donald J. Trump is a millionaire, the difference is, he is a developer and has earned his money through hard work, focus and persistence. Those named above cannot claim anything close to that.
“The 1619 Project” Hurts Blacks
by Robert L. Woodson
You may have heard the rubbish the left is pushing regarding the release of the special 100 page edition of the Sunday magazine in the New York Times. Following are a couple excerpts from an editorial piece in the 8/29 edition of the Wall Street Journal which I found very interesting and revealing.
In truth, even in the worst periods of oppression, there were blacks who were in slavery but not of slavery. They maintained a strong moral code and a belief in self-determination and mutual support that allowed them to rise despite their enslavement. There were men and women who were born slaves yet died millionaires.
Even in the era of legislated segregation before the civil-rights movement, blacks tapped an entrepreneurial legacy to launch thriving enterprises, including hotels, banks, hospitals, dental schools, insurance companies and even a dry dock and railroad company. In fact, the black business district of Durham, NC, was known as “Black Wall Street.” This spectrum of achievement is a powerful refutation of the claim that the destiny of Black Americans is determined by what whites do-or what they did in the past.
This empowering spirit is alive today. While the race-grievance purveyors declare that institutional racism destines blacks to lives of poverty and impotence, black people have risen to establish oases of excellence and accomplishment in their communities….”
Black America’s history of success and achievement-and its continuing legacy today-is a vital, inspiring part of our nation’s past. It’s sadly overlooked in “The 1619 Project.” That project also promotes the dangerous idea that the black community is exempt from responsibility to lift itself. To paraphrase C.S. Lewis, “some prisons have locks that are on the inside.”
Mr. Woodson is president and founder of the Woodson Center
As an American citizen, how do you want our country to move forward for you and your family:
SECURE BORDERS? OPEN BORDERS?
MORE GOVERNMENT? LESS GOVERNMENT?
A STRONG MILITARY? A WEAK MILITARY?
LESS TAXATION? MORE TAXATION?
LESS GOVERNMENT REGULATION? MORE GOVERNMENT REGULATION?
FAIR TRADE AGREEMENTS? QUID PRO QUO TRADE AGREEMENTS?
PROPER CARE FOR OUR VETERANS? DON’T CARE FOR OUR VETERANS?
MERIT BASED IMMIGRATION? THE SHIT WE HAVE NOW?
RESPONSIBLE HELP FOR THE POOR? THROW MONEY AT THE PROBLEM?
TEACH AMERICAN HISTORY TO OUR CHILDREN? ERASE AMERICAN HISTORY?
RESPECT OUR FLAG? DON’T GIVE A SHIT?
SAY THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE IN SCHOOL? WHAT IS THAT?
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
and
“KEEP AMERICAN GREAT”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”</blockquote
