Consumer Confidence Hit Highest Level Since 2000
Consumer Confidence hit highest level since 2000. Only in eleven individual months since 1967 have we seen confidence higher than it is today. Nine of those months were in the year 2000. The other two were in 1999. This is the thin air of high peaks…
The euphoria is not limited to the consumer sector. The ISM manufacturing index is at its highest level since 2004 and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is at its highest level on records that date back to 1974. The fact that these measures are at record highs does not preclude them from going higher, BUT, one characteristic that they all share is a tendency to peak before a slowdown. Wells Fargo
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for September Reports Continued Expansion
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for September and reports Texas factory activity continued to expand in the month, according to executives responding to the survey. The indexes for manufacturing activity declined, suggesting a slower expansion in September.
Perceptions of broader business conditions remain positive though outlooks were less optimistic and uncertainty increased further.
Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity Reports Robust Activity in September
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity and reports Fifth District manufacturing activity was robust in September, according to results of the most recent survey. Survey respondents were optimistic, expecting growth to continue in the next 6 months. Shipments and new orders increased, employment dropped, but the index remained positive. Manufacturing firms continued to struggle to find skilled employees and they expect this difficulty to continue in the coming months.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Unchanged in August
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at 0+.18 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from July and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in August. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) rose to +0.24 in August from +0.02 in July.
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion.
Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
US Raw Steel Production Inched Up Last Week
US raw steel production inched up 0.1% last week as mills operated at an ACUR of 79.5%. in the corresponding week last year mills operated at an ACUR of 73.4%. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 69,000,000 tons compared to the prox 66,000,000 tons produced in the like period last year.
USA Drill Rigs Running Slipped Last Week
The number of drill rigs running in the USA slipped by two last week (to 1053), led by Oklahoma, down by three. At the same time Canadian drilling tumbled by 29 rigs (to 197) compared with the previous week.
2nd Quarter GDP Increased at an Annual Rate of 4.2%
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “third” and final estimate of 2nd quarter GDP which says real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.2%.
Monthly Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for August 2018 released by the Census Bureau:
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased 4.5 percent. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 1.2 percent July increase.
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in August, up three of the last four months, increased 0.8 percent following a 0.1 percent July increase.
- Inventories of manufactured durable goods in August decreased 0.4 percent following nineteen consecutive monthly increases.
Midwest Economy Index (MEI) Ticked Town in August
The Midwest Economy Index (MEI) was released for August. The index ticked down to +0.42 in August from +0.43 in July…
Chicago Business Barometer Eased in August
The Chicago Business Barometer eased in August for the first time in five months to 63.6 in August from 65.5 in July. New orders and production held steady and inventories moved back into expansion after July’s 18 month low.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised short term interest rates by .25% to a rate between 2-2.25%
Kavanaugh Circus Continues
The circus that is the Kavanaugh smear continues unabated this week. There is a hearing set for Thursday if the lefties don’t figure out another stall. It is so obvious that this is political chicanery. The left has tried and almost succeeded in eliminating due process.
The have presented accusers who cannot remember; dates, times, location and further have no corroborative evidence to of any of the charges (?) levied against Brett Kavanaugh. Anyone listed as a “witness” has disavowed any knowledge of anything occurring.
Why in the world is the United States Senate spending its time on this frivolous bullshit? Why? Bending to the wishes of the left is a bad policy. Compromise, yes, bi-partisan agreement, yes but capitulating under duress? Bullshit. Remember who the clowns are when you are in the voting booth this November. You think this is bad? Let them have control again.
Avenatti Adds Accuser
The scumbag attorney representing Stormy Daniels has dug up another witness claiming sexual harassment by Brett Kavanaugh. He was not implicated in any harassment but what present.
According to this woman there were 10 parties back in the 80’s wherein Kavanaugh and his cohorts were handing out drugs to women and then gang banging a girl or two. She went to ALL TEN of these parties knowing what was going on and yet still chose to go. She claims she was gang-raped…but not by Kavanaugh.
This whole thing is just ridiculous. Is it not strange that no one filed a complaint or attempted to file charges? That no one purportedly there can recall anything at all, that through SIX different FBI investigations throughout his career, none of this was ever discovered?
Trump Whirlwind
I wish I had half the energy our president has. Today, Wednesday, he spoke before the United Nations, had a meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu then took questions for nearly an hour and a half from the press. He didn’t dodge any questions, did go off on a tangent a couple of times but nothing too terrible and to be expected after such a long day, in my view.
Boundless energy, indefatigable, loves our country, means to do well for all Americans…and for all peace-loving nations and peoples. Has no problem calling out the bad guys. It really is a wonder to see him work.
Despite all those wishing his administration to fail, he has succeeded on a scale unimaginable to most. Just imagine what could be accomplished with the support of Congress, if all the resistance and obstruction were to cease.
Discovery Meeting: Ford & Kavanaugh
This circus of a discovery meeting with Mrs. Ford on the Kavanaugh nomination is a joke. Not one Democrat senator has asked her one relevant question. They are very good at telling her how wonderful she is, how brave she is, how courageous, how disrespected she has been and grandstanding about their own piety. All bullshit. There has been no attempt whatsoever at discovery.
They all believe her, the accuser making the accused guilty prior to his defending himself. That loser, Senator Richard Blumenthal, who lied about his valorous service during the Viet Nam war bloviating his nonsense. How do people continue to vote that liar into office?
Sorry to digress but he should not garner respect from anyone, nor should anyone consider listening to anything he has to say. I support her if she is being truthful and I would welcome a different nominee if she is truthful but there are so many facts which lend doubt to her testimony.
On Friday Mr. Kavanaugh passed the Judiciary Committee vote and have now delayed the senate vote by a week so the FBI can investigate. But investigate what? Mrs. Ford does not know where it happened or when it happened and the witnesses she and the other accusers have brought forth deny any knowledge of any of this.
So, we bend to another delay tactic. If this stall does not go beyond “one week,” I will be extremely surprised. I would also be pleased if the investigation is done within a week and Mr. Kavanaugh is exonerated. If it is found that he lied, off with his head!
But no further delay should be considered.
I just listened to Brett Kavanaugh’s opening statement. Therein lies the truth…
VOTE FOR CONTINUED PROSPERITY ON NOVEMBER 6
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”
