Highest Consumer Confidence Since July 2021

Highest consumer confidence since 2021, not since the outset of the pandemic has consumers’ assessment of the present situation been stronger than it is today. Meanwhile, amid broad improvement in labor market measures, overall consumer confidence rose to its highest level since July 2021, and expectations rose as well.

The Fed raised interest rates .25 basis points on Wednesday (1/4 point)

US Raw Steel production Up from Previous Week

In the week ending 7/15/23, US raw steel production was 1,716,000 net tons at an ACUR of 75.5 percent, up 0.3 percent from the previous week ending 7/8/23.

US Drill Rigs Running Down from Previous Week

There were 669 drill rigs running in the US last week, down six rigs from the previous week, down 89 rigs from one year ago. Canadian drillers held at 187 rigs, which is down 8 rigs from one year ago.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased in the Second Quarter of 2023

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The increase in the second quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and business investment that were partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

CFNAI Edged Down in June

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to -0.32 in June from -0.28 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from May, and three of the four categories made negative contributions in June. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), increased to -0.16 in June, from -0.21 in May

What do the numbers mean? A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below –0.35. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

News Headlines

I believe the Biden house of cards is beginning to crumble; on Wednesday, the crack-head Hunter Biden went to court thinking he would accept a plea deal on his tax evasion and lying on a Federal Firearms form, both felonies, for which he was expecting to be charged with two misdemeanors and receive immunity from any subsequent charges. Too bad, the presiding judge started asking questions about the deal and its contents and rejected the plea deal. He is now in deep shit and his father will soon be in the same toilet.

The Biden administration, continuing it attacks on political opponents, has refused Secret Service protection for RFK. This protocol ahs been in place for candidates since his uncle, president John Kennedy, was assassinated in 1963. These are just unbelievably bad people.

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

and

“KEEP AMERICA GREAT”

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907

In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”