LEI below 100 for first time since 2016
LEI below 100 for first time since 2016, according to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI). It sank in September to a level last seen in September 2016. This once widely followed gauge seems to have a credibility problem. According to Wells Fargo, who maintains the US economy is achieving a soft landing, even if a recession were to start tomorrow, it would not redeem the fact that for more than two and a half years the LEI has cried wolf.
The LEI declined 0.5 percent, to 99.7 in September. This marks the first time the index has been below 100 since 2016.
Regarding this statement by Wells, I am not too sure of their opinion. We are busy, but our business is down, as are the businesses of many others. The anti-business policies of the current administration, the constant overspending etc. will have a negative effect on many businesses and, therefore, people. I do not see this as a soft landing, perhaps the calm before the storm. Many are certainly in the storm now. Should Trump win the election, things will turn positive, but I think it will take at least a year to turn the ship around.
New Orders for Cutting Tools Improved
American Machinist reports new orders for cutting tools improved 9.1% from July to August as manufacturers purchased a total of $209.3 million. While the August figure reverses a three-month trend of falling purchases for cutting tools, the result is -4.5% less than August 2023 order volume.
US cutting tool orders have hit significant headwinds as we move into the fourth quarter of 2024,” according to US Cutting Tool Institute (USCTI) president Steve Boyer. “We saw orders drop-offs in orders for two of the last three months of the third quarter of this year compared to last year.
US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week
In the week ending October 19, 2024, US raw steel production was 1,631,000 net tons at an ACUR of 73.4 percent, up 0.7 percent from the previous week ending October 12, 2024.
Adjusted year-to-date production was 71,069,000 net tons at an ACUR of 76.4 percent, that is down 1.8 percent from the same period last year.
Manufacturing Activity Reports Manufacturing Activity Remained Slow in October
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity results and reports manufacturing activity remained slow in October. The composite manufacturing index increased from -21 in September to -14 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments increased, new orders rose and employment increased, all had improved, but still negative readings.
US Drill Rigs Running Up from Previous Week
The US had 481 drill rigs running in the US last week, up two rigs from the previous week, down from the 501 oil rigs running one year ago. Canadian drillers dropped four rigs, to 219.
CFNAI Decreased in September
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to -0.28 in September from -0.01 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from August, and all four categories made negative contributions in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.19 in September from -0.14 in August.
What do the numbers mean?
When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. Conversely, when the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above –0.70 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended.
When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a period of sustained increasing inflation has begun.
Headline News
“The Marxist Democrats,” including Kamala, are accusing Trump of being a fascist, of being Hitler, of threatening to use the armed forces to round up his political opponents. This is all so ridiculous, it is absurd. Once again, they accuse conservatives of doing what they do, have done, or will do. How many Americans are still imprisoned for protesting on January 6? How many of the political opponents of “democrats” have been rousted in their homes by SWAT teams?
Donald Trump is a patriot, he loves the USA, and her citizens. He had four years in his first term to do all the nonsense they accuse him of planning to do. Did he? Of course not. It is all such bullshit and a sickening display of treachery. The sad thing is that so many people swallow this crap and believe it, but if you look at what he did for the country, and what he will do, it is obviously all nonsense.
New home sales jumped 4.1% during September, easily topping consensus expectations. On balance, new home sales have drifted higher this year despite various swings in mortgage rates. The upward trend reflects better affordability conditions in the new home market, which is relatively replete with supply and where builders are able to offer a menu of price incentives for increasingly cost-conscious buyers. Wells Fargo
“KEEP AMERICA GREAT”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”
