Real GDP Increased 3.2%
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
Durable goods orders rose 2.7% in March. Core capital goods orders suggest the economy has momentum going into Q2, but core capital goods shipments still suggest weak business spending in tomorrow’s Q1 GDP report. Wells Fargo…
Manufacturing Activity Moderated in April
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District survey of Manufacturing Activity and reports manufacturing activity moderated in April. The composite index fell from 10 in March to 3 in April, weighed down by slightly negative readings in the indexes for both shipments and new orders but buoyed by a positive reading for employment. Firms were optimistic, expecting conditions to improve in the next six months.
New Home Sales Rose
New home sales rose well ahead of expectations in March, increasing 4.5% during the month. Wells Fargo
CFNAI Rose in March
Led by improvements in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.15 in March from -0.31 in February. Three of the four broad categories that make up the index increased from February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI MA-3 moved down to -0.24 in March from -0.18 in February.
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
Conference Board LEI Increased in March
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US increased 0.4 percent in March following a 0.1 percent increase in February and no change in January.
The US LEI picked up in March with labor markets, consumers’ outlook and financial conditions making the largest contributions,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board. “Despite the relatively large gain in March, the trend in the US LEI continues to moderate, suggesting that growth in the US economy is likely to decelerate toward its long-term potential of about 2% by year end.”
US Raw Steel Production was 1,903,000 Tons the Week Ending April 20, 2019
In the week ending April 20, US raw steel production was 1,903,000 tons at an ACUR of 81.8 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 30,000,000 tons compared to the prox 28,000,000 tons produced in the like period last year.
US Drill Rigs Running Down
The number of drill rigs running in the US was 1012 down 10 from the prior count. Meanwhile Canadian drilling remained at 66 rigs with no change from the previous count.
The US Census Bureau Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for March 2019:
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased 2.7 percent. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 1.1 percent February decrease.
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, up four of the last five months, increased 0.3 percent.
- Inventories of manufactured durable goods in March, up twenty six of the last twenty seven months, increased 0.3 percent. Machinery, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, led the increase.
All Aboard the Trump Train
Despite all the obstruction and resistance from the left…and the rino’s on the right, President Trump’s policies continue benefit our country and her citizens. Just imagine where we could be headed if our legislators worked together for the benefit of the country. Let us ALL keep the Trump Train rolling toward justice, prosperity and safety. It is the right thing to do. The alternatives are horrific.
“Old White Men”
Exactly what is all this hatred against “old white men?” I mean, I think they have done a pretty good job over the 243-year history of the United States. We are the strongest and most prosperous country on the planet, have lifted more people out of poverty than anyone, have gone to the defense of our allies throughout history. This is a bad thing to the leftists? Where would the world be without our “old white men?” It is plain idiocy. Why are the “white” politicians renouncing who and what they are? For votes? Likely.
Joe Biden Joins the Race
Joe Biden has announced his intentions for a presidential campaign, pointing to “a battle for the soul of this nation…” That is his first campaign lie. The soul of this country is: Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness, the knowledge that ALL men are created equal, that we are one nation under God, indivisible…
It is not leftism: free college, free healthcare, infanticide, open borders, permitting a tsunami of illegal immigrants to take jobs, to receive taxpayer funded assistance, allow violent incarcerated individuals to vote… and the rest of the bullshit these liberals present as “policy.” These people are a clear and present danger to our republic.
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”