Third straight month decline in manufacturing activity
Third straight month decline in manufacturing activity in April 2025, per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Report on Business. It reports manufacturing activity as measured by the index. Tariff-induced uncertainty continues to weigh on the manufacturing sector. The index fell to 48.7 , down a modest 0.3 points from March. Yet the manufacturing sector looks to have left behind its brief expansionary period experienced at the start of the year (I guarantee that will not last long). The index fell below 50, the number that denotes the difference between expansion and contraction
US raw steel production up from previous week
In the week ending April 26, 2025, US raw steel production was 1,706,000 net tons at an ACUR of 76.0 percent, up 1.4 percent from the previous week ending April 21, 2025. Adjusted YTD production was 27,601,000 net tons at an ACUR of 74.7 percent, down 1.2 percent from one year ago.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey reports activity continued to rise in April
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey results and reports factory activity continued to rise in April, according to business executives responding to the survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged at 5.1, a reading indicative of modest growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity signaled contraction.
Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably in April.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell by 7.9 points in April, to 86.0
Real GDP declined in the first quarter 2025
Real gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.3 percent in the first quarter, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic analysis (BEA). In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which is a subtraction from GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
US drill rigs running up from previous week
There were 587 drill rigs running in the US last week, up two rigs from the previous week, down twenty-six rigs from one year ago. Meanwhile Canadian drillers capped six rigs, to 128, this is up ten rigs from one year ago.
Chicago Business Barometer advanced in March
The Chicago Business Barometer advanced 2.1 points to 47.6 in March. This is the third consecutive monthly gain, taking the index to its highest level since November 2023, though it remains in contractionary territory for the sixteenth successive month.
The increase was largely driven by a rise in production, with smaller increases in Employment, Order Backlogs and New Orders.
A common refrain among American economists is that the US shouldn’t be overly concerned with its declining share of global manufacturing. They point out that manufacturing has accounted for a shrinking portion of US employment over the years and that automation rather than trade is responsible for most of the dip in employment.
This argument is built on an important misunderstanding-one that conflates two different sources of manufacturing job losses. When employment in manufacturing declines because of rising productivity, the change should be welcomed, not feared. It means that fewer workers are needed to produce more output. This isn’t deindustrialization, it is smarter, more efficient production. As long as wages rise with overall productivity, it creates as many good jobs as it destroys.
But this welcome decline in manufacturing employment has been compounded by an unwelcome decline in the US manufacturing sector’s share of global manufacturing output. This distinction is critical.
Many of America’s major trading partners-including China, Germany and South Korea-have implemented industrial policies designed to increase their share of global manufacturing output.
These countries believe that gains from productivity improvements in manufacturing will spill over into the broader economy. That’s why they give priority to manufacturing and seek to shift global production capacity toward their domestic industries.
Many US policymakers and economists have responded to these efforts with complacency. They argue that because manufacturing employment is declining anyway ( I blame our policymakers-rb) there’s no harm in letting other countries take on a greater role in global production. (In my view this is a monumental error. What happens in the coming conflicts when we cannot manufacture ships, tanks, munitions, parts and equipment? What about pharmaceuticals? Most of what we need comes from China. They can and will, shut us off like a faucet.)
This is a mistake. Letting other countries take the lead in manufacturing harms the American economy. The US accommodates other countries’ successful industrial policies by absorbing global savings imbalances, running trade deficits and offshoring manufacturing.
The result is slower productivity growth, heightened inequality and diminished economic resilience. When US manufacturing jobs are lost to automation, that’s a mark of progress. When they’re lost because foreign governments actively reshape global manufacturing flows in their favor, the result isn’t higher productivity, it’s displacement.”
Excerpts from an editorial in the Thursday Wall Street Journal by Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
THURSDAY, MAY 1, 2025 SUMMIT STEEL CELEBRATED ITS 40TH YEAR IN BUSINESS. OUR THANKS AND APPRECIATION GO OUT TO OUR CUSTOMERS AND SUPPLIERS WHO ARE THE REASON FOR OUR CONTINUED SUCCESS.
Headline News
US tariff revenues reached a record $15 billion in April, according to the Treasury Dept., that is up 105 percent from one year ago.
All the talk this week is revolves around the success, or failure, of the first 100 days of the Trump administration. Naturally, the left proclaims it a complete failure, from what I see, all based on lies and propaganda against Donald Trump, not his policies, but the man himself. How long has this been going on, 10 years? He has secured our borders, killed “woke,” declared the existence of only two genders, inflation and food prices have moderated, though there is still much to do. He has prohibited men from competing in women’s sports, and the biggie of course, is his implementation of tariffs, the goal of which is to level the playing field in world trade. China is asking its trading partners to resist, but Trump is resisting the unfair tariffs placed on US produced goods by our trading partners in the world. How will he do that? As I have said before, we are the largest consuming market on the planet. Everyone needs the United States to buy their goods and services, and we have been paying a stiff price to allow this, for many decades. Again, UNFAIR trade. We were all warned there would be some discomfort as these policies were enacted and change began to take shape. Americans need to be cognizant of this. In time, these policies will prove beneficial to the USA and her citizens. It is the right thing to do. Tuesday, Mark Carney was elected prime minister of Canada, he aims to decouple Canada from the US in this trade war. Not one of these countries admits to screwing us with their oppressive tariffs on our goods. Many countries are lining up to re-negotiate their trade deals with us, however these a negotiated, the USA will be better off when they are completed. It just makes sense.
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
“KEEP AMERICA GREAT”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”
