Housing Starts Rose in November
Single family housing starts rose 2.4% in November, multi-family starts by 4.9% and overall building permits rose 1.4%. Wells Fargo
November existing home sales declined 1.7% in November but are still up 2.7% over the year. Sales should continue to improve with support from lower mortgage rates though inventory shortages will limit the upside. Wells Fargo
Q3 GDP Increased
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “third” and final estimate of Q3 economic growth and reports the economy increased at a 2.1% annual rate, unchanged from the “second” estimate released in November.
Consumer Sentiment at Second Highest Level of the Year
Consumer sentiment rose to its second highest level all year as the holiday shopping season hit high gear. With income growing, consumers can increase spending and still save. Wells Fargo
US Drill Rigs Running Up 14 from Prior Count
There were 813 drill rigs running in the US last week, up 14 from the prior count which is down 267 rigs from the same period last year. Canadian drilling dropped by 4 rigs to 149 which is up 18 from the like period last year.
US Raw Steel Production at ACUR 80.7%
In the week ending December 21, 2019 US raw steel production was 1,866,000 net tons at an ACUR of 80.7 percent. Thus far this year mills have produced prox 94,450,000 net tons compared to the prox 92,777,000 net tons produced in the like period last year.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US was Unchanged in November
The US LEI was unchanged in November after three consecutive monthly declines. Strength in residential construction, financial markets and consumers’ outlook offset weakness in manufacturing and labor markets,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board. “while the six-month growth rate of the LEI remains negative, the index suggests that economic growth is likely to stabilize around 2% in 2020.”
Manufacturing Activity Slowed in December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity and reports manufacturing activity slowed in December. Manufacturers reported weakness in local business conditions and capacity utilization, but they were optimistic that conditions would improve in coming months.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Rose to +0.56 in November
Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.56 in November from -0.76 in October all four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in November. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) moved up to -0.25 in November from -0.35 in October.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, also a three-month moving average, ticked up to -0.23 in November from -0.24 in October
What do the numbers mean?
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.
An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
We hope everyone enjoyed their Christmas and Hanukah holiday celebrations. We wish you all a very healthy and prosperous New Year!
As an American citizen, how do you want our country to move forward for you and your family:
SECURE BORDERS? OPEN BORDERS?
MORE GOVERNMENT? LESS GOVERNMENT?
A STRONG MILITARY? A WEAK MILITARY?
LESS TAXATION? MORE TAXATION?
LESS GOVERNMENT REGULATION? MORE GOVERNMENT REGULATION?
FAIR TRADE AGREEMENTS? QUID PRO QUO TRADE AGREEMENTS?
PROPER CARE FOR OUR VETERANS? DON’T CARE FOR OUR VETERANS?
MERIT BASED IMMIGRATION? THE SHIT WE HAVE NOW?
RESPONSIBLE HELP FOR THE POOR? THROW MONEY AT THE PROBLEM?
TEACH AMERICAN HISTORY TO OUR CHILDREN? ERASE AMERICAN HISTORY?
RESPECT OUR FLAG? DON’T GIVE A SHIT?
SAY THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE IN SCHOOL? WHAT IS THAT?
Infrastructure X (Keystone & Dakota pipelines) Regulation Reform XX 1 in 2 out
Individual Tax Reform XX Entitlement Reform
Business Tax Reform XX Education Reform X
Healthcare Reform Veterans Administration Reform X
Rebuild our Military X Trade Reform X
Secure our Borders (The Wall) XX Lead the world from the front XX
Help for the poor XX Drain the swamp X as we speak
Peace through unmatchable strength Support Israel X
Destroy ISIS XX Extreme Vetting XX
Conservative Supreme Court nominees XX American Jobs XX
I will track these campaign promises and will check them off as each is accomplished adding those I have missed as they become apparent. This is quite an agenda and will be difficult to achieve all in one term, but I believe the American people are behind him and know these things need to be done. Now, if he can get our legislators to support him instead of fighting him….
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
“KEEP AMERICAN GREAT”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”