Short Term Outlook is Getting Brighter

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Released Friday, the LEI increased 0.5 percent in December following a 0.4 percent November increase and a 0.6 percent increase in October.

December’s gain in the LEI was driven by a majority of its components, suggesting the short term outlook is getting brighter and the economy continues to build momentum. Still a lack of growth in residential construction and average weekly hours in manufacturing remains a concern. Current economic conditions measured by the coincident indicators show employment and income gains are helping to keep the US economy on a solid expansionary path despite some weakness in industrial production.”

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

Led by declines in production related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -0.05 in December from +0.92 in November. None of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November.

The index’s three month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) moved down to +0.39 in December from +0.54 in November. December’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend.

US raw steel production

… slid 4.9 percent from the previous week as mills operated at an ACUR of 75.1 percent. In the corresponding week last year mills operated at an ACUR of 75.8 percent. Thus far this year mills have operated at an ACUR of 77.1 percent compared to the same period last year when mills operated at an ACUR of 75.8 percent.

Nice way to start the week

The genius in Washington wants to reinstate the death tax and would also like to raise the capital gains tax rate to 28%, raising $320 BILLION over 10 years (but there is NO end date to the tax increase). He will pitch this garbage at his State of the Union message on Tuesday night; raise taxes on businesses and individuals, mandate paid sick leave, “free” community college education, paid child care….. and on and on. Why is it our government can’t seem to live within its means?

Instead of cutting spending (like you and I have to do when the bucks run out) on some of the garbage they waste OUR money on they just want to raise our taxes more and more and more. Crooks, just highly paid crooks. As an aside, what exactly is the state of our union? We don’t want to hear your plans for the future, we want to know what has been going on since your last SOTU address, what have you done to help the American people in the past year?

No mention was made of the crappy labor participation rate, the low paying job market, racial tensions at home, loss of income by the middle class, loss of respect around the world, the lack of a strategy to defeat radical Islam etc. etc. But these realities make up a large part of the state of our union and although this is still the best place on the planet to live…we have plenty of work to do to make things right.

Analysis of the speech on Wednesday morning described it as “political posturing for 2016” and an attempt at advancement of policies which would be “dead on arrival” in Congress. The president said climate change was the biggest threat to us (really?), Islamic terrorism was not even mentioned as a threat to the US or the world when, in fact, it is a clear and present danger. Go figure. He won’t even utter the words “Islamic terrorism”.

In the mean time ISIS has two Japanese hostages whom they have threatened to behead if the Japanese government does not pay them $200 million in ransom. The deadline is sometime on Friday and the sand rats have even provided a countdown clock.

Ferguson

The Justice Department completed their investigation (using 40 FBI agents to examine the evidence) of the Michael Brown shooting in Ferguson, MO and found no evidence of wrongdoing by former police officer Darrin Wilson and, therefore, no civil rights charges will be brought against him. The town of Ferguson was ravaged by idiots looking for any excuse to steal and loot. Millions of dollars were lost by the small businesses affected and the legal expense, I’m sure, was astronomical. Thanks Al Sharpton, you were a big help…..not

Deflategate

…. all the problems in the world and the media is focused on the amount of hot air in a football….go figure. It is obvious that this didn’t happen by itself but I cannot figure out why, with so much on the line for both the coach and the quarterback, either of them would pull a stunt like that and think they would get away with it. Time will tell.

Remember:

Fast & Furious-providing weapons to criminals leading to a loss of American life. No one held accountable. The president was unaware.
The loss of 4 American lives at our embassy in Benghazi, Libya. No one held accountable. The president was unaware.
The IRS targeting conservative political groups for tax-exempt status. No one held accountable. The president was unaware.
The National Security Administration eavesdropping on the phone calls of American citizens. No one held accountable. The president was unaware.
The software program created for the Affordable Healthcare Act, at a cost of $1 billion (thus far) and 3 ½ years to “perfect”, has been unusable to the American people. No one held accountable. The president was unaware.
Spying on our Allies, specifically Angela Merkel of Germany. No one held accountable. The president was unaware. (Although these things go on knowingly between countries all the time, the fact that our president denies knowledge of this is just another sign of his incompetence as the leader of the most powerful country on the planet).
“If you like your current insurance plan you can keep it. Period” Barack Obama
“If you like your doctor, you can keep him. Period” Barack Obama

Have a great weekend and….

Hug your children and grandchildren, tell them you love them.
Buy American made products whenever you can.
Hire a Veteran: they are patriots, honest, hard working, disciplined, loyal…. and …. They need and deserve our support.

God Bless America