CFNAI Rose in July

CFNAI rose in July, led by improvements in production-related indicators. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.12 in July from -0.33 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from June, and two of the four broad categories made positive contributions in July. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), ticked up to -0.13 in July from -0.15 in June.

What do the numbers mean? A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.

Conversely, periods of economic contraction have his0torically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below –0.35. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion.

Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week

In the week ending August 19, 2023, US raw steel production was 1,756,000 net tons at an ACUR of 77.2 percent, up 1.1 percent from the previous week ending August 12, 2023.

US Drill Rigs Running Down from Previous Week

There were 642 drill rigs running in the US last week, down 12 rigs from the previous week, which is down 120 rigs from one year ago. Canadian drillers dropped 1 rig, to 189, which is 12 rigs less than last year.

Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Remained Sluggish in August 2023

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August and reports manufacturing activity remained sluggish, according to the most recent survey. The composite manufacturing index edged up from July to August. Two of its three component indexes-shipments and new orders-also increased.

The average mortgage rate in the US now stands at 7.23%, the highest in 22 years. It’s getting a little tough for the blue-collar worker to purchase a home.

News Headlines

Read below before you piss away your money on an EV.

The EV Bubble Starts to Deflate. Excerpts from a Wall Street Journal editorial Tuesday:

It’s ironic, to say the least, the US is seeking to imitate China’s economic model at the moment its industrial policy fractures. Look no further than its collapsing electric vehicle bubble, which is a lesson in how industries built by government often fail because of government.

Tesla last week slashed its prices in China to boost sales in an oversaturated EV market. In July Tesla and other automakers in China agreed to stop their EV price war, only to scrap the cease-fire days later owing to government antitrust concerns. While lower prices may benefit consumers, automakers in China are bleeding red ink and going bust.
About 400 Chinese electric-car makers have failed in the past several years as Beijing reduced industry subsidies while ramping up production mandates. Scrap yards around China are littered with EVs whose technology has become outdated.

Automakers are having to slash prices to sell cars they are required to make, which is eroding margins. China’s EV mandate is similar to those imposed by California and the Biden administration and especially punishes the West’s traditional gasoline automakers.

As with real estate, Chinese government support inflated EV investment and misallocated capital that could have been put to more productive uses. Now comes the destruction that invariably follows the government creation, which may be a harbinger for the US as the Biden administration emulates China’s EV industrial policy.

Cox Automotive reported this month that EV inventory had swelled to 103 days of supply in the US, about double that of gas-powered cars. Automakers and dealers are discounting EVs to sell their growing supply. The average EV price paid by consumers has fallen 20% compared with a year ago o $53,438, driven by Tesla’s price cuts and dealer incentives.

Ford recently reduced its EV production targets as its losses and unsold inventory grow. Traditional automakers will have to raise prices on gas-powered cars to compensate for their EV losses.

Business failures are inevitable in a dynamic economy, but government will be mainly responsible for the destruction that results from its force-fed EV transition-and the damage may only just be starting.”

I have said before, and I will say it again; forcing the American people to use EVs, to stop using gas and oil products for transportation, heating and cooling, cooking, and whatever other American conveniences the Marxists are on their way to eliminating from our lives, is a big load of horse shit. The politicians and their buddies are making a fortune off our mandated inconvenience. It must be stopped and next November’s general election is the time to do it. It will not be here soon enough. I only hope our conservative legislators can manage to articulate a vision of economic and personal freedom to sway those who are blinded by CNN, MSNBC, all the leftist media, and the grand crook himself, Joe Biden and his administration of freaks.

On Wednesday afternoon we received news that Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in a private airplane crash on his way from Moscow to St. Petersburg, with 9 or 10 other people on board. Mr. Prigozhin, you may recall, was the head of the Wagner Group, a collection of mercenaries doing Putin’s bidding. They attempted to overthrow Putin in June, the coup attempt failed, and everyone knew that his time on earth was limited.

DO NOT COMPLY

Nearly one year after president Joe Biden declared the pandemic over, some colleges and workplaces have reinstituted mask mandates amid reports that the administration is set to roll out new COVID regulations as early as next month.

The COVID sub-variant, currently known as Eris, which has been seen in more than 50 countries including Denmark and Israel, has spurred increasing numbers of medical professionals and health activists to begin calling for a reinstatement of COVID-era restrictions, including forced face coverings. ~ Epoch Times

We have all seen this horse shit before, we are still suffering from the effects of masking (useless), school lockdowns (detrimental to our children), business lockdowns (how many were forced to close permanently? How many lost huge amounts of money to comply with the stupidity?).

A review of the evidence around these mandates has not shown a positive health impact. The Marxist Democrats only seek to control the people of this country. I will NOT comply. They can kiss my ass.

Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States has now been arrested four separate times, most recently on Thursday in Fulton County, Ga. The arrest on 90 some worthless charges by the DA, Fani Lewis, who, as I stated before is the only DA out of 159 in Georgia, to be on board with this nonsense. She is now being investigated. Where has our country sunk to under the “leadership” of the Marxist Democrats? That the Justice Department, FBI, and law enforcement have been politicized to persecute the political opponent of the president and citizens who disagree with the ideas of the left? This is insanity and not a good sign for the future of liberty in America.

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

and

“KEEP AMERICA GREAT”

Have a great weekend…. God bless America!

Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.

If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.

By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.

TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907

In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”