First Estimate of 2022Q4 GDP at 2.9 Percent
The first estimate of 2022Q4 GDP at 2.9 percent, but drilling into the numbers shows housing in a recession, taking transportation out of the equation leaves GDP growth in a negative position.
US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week
In the week ending 1/21/23, US raw steel production was 1,620,000 net tons at an ACUR of 72.5 percent, up 1.1 percent from the previous week.
US Drill Rigs Running Down from Previous Week
There were 771 drill rigs running in the US last week, down 4 rigs from the previous week, up 167 rigs from 1 year ago.
Canadian drillers added 14 rigs, to 241, up 17 rigs from the previous week, up 29 rigs from 1 year ago.
Tenth Consecutive Decline in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)
The tenth consecutive decline in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) was worse than expected in December and included downward revisions to November’s report, continuing to signal recession for the US economy in the near term. The six-month change in the LEI rose modestly to -0.7% but remains below the -0.4% threshold that has historically been indicative of a coming recession.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Edged Up in December
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged up to -0.49 in December from -0.51 in November. The index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) decreased to -0.33 in December from -0.14 in November.
What do the numbers mean? A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.
Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below –0.35. An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.
Look past the aircraft boost in Thursday’s durable goods report to see the pivot from slowing capital goods orders to outright declines. Taken in tandem with the contraction in equipment spending in today’s GDP report, this is further evidence that the manufacturing recession is underway. Wells Fargo
The Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, has relieved Eric Swalwell and Adam Schiff of their duties on the House Intelligence Committee. Good. Marxist democrats are demanding they be reinstated. Both men (?) however, are known liars and Swalwell, in addition to his other disgusting character faults, was bedded by a Chinese female spy. Imagine that pillow talk. I am surprised the SOB is not in jail for aiding and abetting the enemy. The House should stand strong on this.
No one is cutting Social Security or Medicare. Period. I don’t know how the Marxist Democrats get away with openly lying to the American people, seemingly every day.
The president can’t say a sentence without lying.
Adam Schiff openly lied for four years. All about Trump, of course.
Eric Swalwell is another proficient liar, as is that fat turd, Jerry Nadler, Merrick Garland is a liar, Hillary Clinton is a liar, Maxine Waters is a liar, Gavin Newsom is a liar, Kathy Hochul is a liar, Lori Lightfoot is a liar, Elizabeth Warren is a liar. They are ALL liars, every damned one of them. It is ridiculous already.
Adam Schiff is running for senate in California. Again, he is a crook and a consummate liar. The people of California should REJECT him as he is not morally fit to hold the seat of Senator in the United States Senate. Give him the boot…
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”
“KEEP AMERICA GREAT”
Have a great weekend…. God bless America!
Buy American made products whenever you can, it’s good for you, good for your friends and neighbors and good for our country.
If you are hiring…try to hire a veteran…. they are loyal, disciplined, hardworking…and they deserve our support.
By the way, if you wish to comment on my rants or offer any other insights you may have, you are encouraged to email me.
TEDDY ROOSEVELT ON IMMIGRANTS IN AMERICA…1907
In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person’s becoming in every facet an American and nothing but an American. There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn’t an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag…We have room for but one language here and that is the English language…and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people.”