CFNAI Rose in July CFNAI rose in July, led by improvements in production-related indicators. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.12 in July from -0.33 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from June, and two of the four broad categories made positive [...]
Survey Future Indexes Positive but Declined Survey future indexes positive but declined, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey results. It reports manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to firms responding to the survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive [...]
Recession Concerns Diminishing Somewhat Recession concerns diminishing somewhat suggests a Wells Fargo statement. Small business optimism bested expectations in July, notching its third consecutive improvement. The fact that small firms’ economic outlooks continue to improve despite recent macroeconomic headwinds suggests that recession concerns may be diminishing somewhat.” Wells Fargo I must disagree with this. You [...]
Labor Market Gradually Cooling The labor market gradually cooling, as the US economy created 187,000 jobs in July, the 2nd sub-200k report. The number was still strong enough to keep downward pressure on unemployment. Texas Manufacturing Activity Declined The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its July 2023 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey results and reports factory [...]
Highest Consumer Confidence Since July 2021 Highest consumer confidence since 2021, not since the outset of the pandemic has consumers’ assessment of the present situation been stronger than it is today. Meanwhile, amid broad improvement in labor market measures, overall consumer confidence rose to its highest level since July 2021, and expectations rose as well. The [...]
LEI Below Recession Threshold Over a Year LEI below recession threshold over a year fell again in June, down 0.7%. This marks the 15th consecutive monthly decline. Total housing starts declined sharply during June, partially reversing May’s robust gain. The drop was broad-based, with both single-family and multifamily production pulling back during the month. Business [...]
June CPI Up Slightly The June CPI up slightly, came in at 3.00%, up 0.2 percent over the month of June, a steep decline from the May reading of, I believe, 5.6%. US machine shops and other manufacturers increased their purchases of machine tools by 10.0% from April to May, with new orders totaling $362.77 [...]
Seventeen-month High Index in Consumer Confidence A seventeen-month high, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions rose along with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in June. Manufacturing Activity Remained Relatively Flat in June The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released its Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity and reports manufacturing [...]
Residential Construction Gathering Momentum Residential construction gathering momentum despite higher interest rates. Total housing starts soared 21.7% over the month of May to a 1.63-million-unit annual pace. While total starts are still down 15.5% on a year-to-date basis, May’s surprising upturn was the strongest since October 2016 and the eighth largest monthly gain since at [...]
US Raw Steel Production Up from Previous Week US raw steel production up 1.0 percent from the previous week ending May 27, 2023, in the week ending June 3, 2023 it was 1,754,000 net tons at an ACUR of78 percent. US Drill Rigs Running Down from Previous Week There were 696 drill rigs running in [...]
